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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Firm as BoE Cooled Rate Cut ExpectationsEuro dips sharply earlier today as Spanish 10 year yield quickly climbed back to as high as 6.978%. While most most major currencies also weaken against dollar and yen, Sterling was firm as BoE Governor King cooled expectation for rate cut from the central bank. After presenting the quarterly Inflation Report, King said that "major of the conditions necessary for a recovery are in place" and further rate cut could be "counter-productive" if it could damage some financial institutions. EUR/GBP dropped sharply today and is back below 0.79 level for the moment. The development retained near term bearish outlook in the cross. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7921; (P) 0.7939; (R1) 0.7955; More... Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, EUR/GBP is still trading well inside near term falling channel, well as falling 55 days EMA, and thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal. A break below 0.7872 minor support will retain the bearish outlook and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7755. However, another rally and decisive break of 0.8 psychological level will put focus back to 0.8156 key resistance level. |
| Special Reports |
BOE Reduced UK's Growth Outlook, Blaming Eurozone Crisis For Delaying RecoveryThe BOE inflation report for August revealed the gloomy economic outlook anticipated by policymakers. The GDP growth forecasts were revised lower while inflation is expected to fall below +2.0% from mid-2013 to 2015. The 'unusually uncertain' economic outlook is mainly due to the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether officials would implement sufficient measures to resolve the crisis. EURGBP To Trend Lower Although Further BOE Easing LikelyThe recent selloff in the euro has sent the EURGBP pair to levels not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008. Given the weakness in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, we expect the situation will continue in coming months. This is in spite of the dismal economic outlook in the UK and the likelihood of further easing by the BOE later in the year. While the pound is expected to outperform the single currency, it would probably continue the range-bound trading with the US dollar. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.5573 in London morning, hawkish comments from BOE's King lifted sterling from low and offers at 1.5620-25 and 1.5650 were filled, however, selling interests from UK clearer are still noted at 1.5680-85 with stops building up above there and also above 1.5700 and 1.5730 (large). On the downside, bids from Middle East and Asian names are tipped at 1.5610-20 and also at 1.5570-75 with stops building up below 1.5560-70, followed by mixtures of bids and stops located at 1.5540-45 and 1.5500-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5615Despite intra-day marginal fall to 1.5573, as the British pound found renewed buying interests just above yesterday’s low of 1.564 and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting the retreat from 1.5684 has possibly ended but break of this resistance is needed to retain bullishness and signal the decline from 1.5768 has ended at 1.5490, bring further gain to 1.5700 and possibly to resistance at 1.5725-30, however, price should falter well below next resistance at 1.5768. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0445As aussie has retreated after yesterday’s brief rise to 1.0604 suggest consolidation below this level would b seen and pullback to 1.0500 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 1.0437 would contain pullback and bring another rise later. A breach of said resistance at 1.0604 would extend upmove from 0.9581 to 1.0640-50 and possibly towards 1.0700 but price should falter below resistance at 1.0753, bring another corrective fall later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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