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Daily Report: Euro Firm With Focus on Greece, FOMC MinutesEuro maintains yesterday's gain against dollar and yen as markets are awaiting Greek prime minister Samaras' meeting with Luxembourg prime minister Juncker. Samaras, who's expected to propose a two-year extension for the country's fiscal adjustment program, urged European leaders to give it "breathing space" to revive the economy quickly and raise state income. He emphasized that Greece demands "no additional money" and will stand by their "commitments". But Samaras also noted that the country needs to "kick-start growth in order to cut our deficit". On the other hand, Samaras will also need to persuade Juncker, as well as German Merkel and French Hollande later in the week, Greece's commitment and thus approve the release of EUR 31.5b of funds next month to avoid a default. Merkel and Hollande will also meet to "discuss flexibility in return for assurances and the two want to have a common line before the arrival of the Greek prime minister" according to a German spokesman. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0445; (P) 1.0482; (R1) 1.0524; More... No change in AUD/USD's outlook. With 1.0528 minor resistance intraday, the fall from 1.0612 is still expected to continue. Break of lower channel support (now at 1.0380). Break will affirm the bearish case that whole rebound from 0.9588 has finished and should target 1.0176 and below. However, considering that AUD/USD is still staying inside the channel, above 1.0528 will dampen the bearish view and suggest that another high above 1.0612 would be seen before the pair finally tops. |
| Special Report |
RBA Minutes Gave No Hint On The Next Rate DecisionThe RBA's minutes for the August meeting contained few surprises, as most of the issues were covered in the RBA quarterly Statement on Policy which was released several days after the August meeting. The minutes confirmed that the RBA acknowledged the peak in mining capex and the improvement in the outlook for housing construction from 2H2012. While keeping the cash rate unchanged at 3.5%, policymakers delivered no hints on the next move. Yet, we believe another rate cut would be announced in the fourth quarter as unemployment will probably increase due to tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency retreated after yesterday's rally to 1.2488, bids from various names are reported at 1.2420-30 and also at 1.2400 with stops building up below 1.2380-90 but fresh demand from Asian and Middle East names are reported further out at 1.2360-70. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2485-95 with buy stop orders placed above 1.2500 option barrier (related to 1.20-1.25 DNT) and also at 1.2510-20, however, cross-related offers from SNB are reported at 1.2540-50 with more stops above 1.2560. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2415Yesterday’s rally above previous resistance at 1.2444 confirms recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.2500 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2515-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3284-1.2042) and reckon 1.2550 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5750Yesterday’s rally to 1.5805 after breaking resistance at 1.5745 signals recent rise from 1.5393 is still in progress and gain to 1.5810-15 and possibly 1.5840-45 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5880-85 and price should falter well below 1.5909 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6304-1.5269). Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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