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Daily Report: Euro Lifted Mildly by French and German GDPEuro is lifted mildly by better than expected GDP data from France and Germany today. French GDP was flat qoq in Q2, comparing to expectation of -0.1% qoq contraction. Meanwhile, German GDP grew 0.3% qoq comparing to consensus of 0.1% qoq. Eurozone GDP will be released later in the session and could probably show -0.2% qoq contraction. Although the 17-nation avoided a technical recession after a flat GDP reading in the previous quarter, the economic developments have been dismal. Several peripheral countries have indeed slipped into recession and the situation will only be worse as the government implement fiscal consolidation plans. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7835; (P) 0.7854; (R1) 0.7881; More... EUR/GBP formed a temporary low at 0.7826 and recovered. With 4 hours MACD back above signal line, bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we're slightly favoring that rebound form 0.7755 is finished at 0.7962 already. And as EUR/GBP is staying well inside the near term falling channel, fall from 0.9083 is still in progress. Below 0.7826 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7755. Further break there will confirm fall resumption for 0.7693 key support level next. We'd stay cautiously bearish as long as 0.7962 resistance holds. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Intervention Unlikely Despite AUD StrengthWhile Australian dollar has so far been moving within a broad range of US$0.95 and US$1.10 since July 2011, its resilience over the past few months has surprised the market. It's conventional wisdom to expect risky asset to decline in tandem with deterioration in global economic prospect, however, Australian dollar gained +10% against the US dollar in the 2 months of June and July even though sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone worsened and China's economic growth demonstrated further signs of fatigue. Recent strength of Australian dollar can be attributed to the relatively higher yield in Australian bonds and higher credit worthiness of the country's assets. Bottoming of the AUD's decline since February was coincided with SNB's intervention. This appeared that investors and official sectors have turned to Australian dollar from Swiss Franc for safe-haven investment. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency retreated after yesterday's rise to 1.2374, as euro found renewed buying interests at 1.2326 in Asian morning and has rebounded again on buying by U.S. and European names (for short-covering), mixture of offers and stops at 1.2380-90 is now in focus, however, more selling interest should emerge around 1.2400 and further out at 1.2440-50 with bigger stops placed above 1.2450 barrier. On the downside, bids from Asian and Middle East names are lined up at 1.2320-25 and also at 1.2300-10 with some stops building up below 1.2290 but bigger buy orders are expected in the region of 1.2240-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5630As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s rise to 1.5717, suggesting bullishness remains for the rise from 1.5490 to extend gain to next resistance at 1.5729, a firm break above there is needed to signal the entire fall from 1.5768 has ended, then erratic upmove from 1.5393 (last month’s low) would resume for a retest of this level later which is likely to hold from here. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2310Yesterday’s rally and the breach of the Ichimoku cloud top signal low is possibly formed at 1.2242 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a test of previous resistance of 1.2387, however, break there is needed to confirm and bring another test of 1.2443-44 resistance. Looking ahead, only above there would signal recent erratic rise from 1.2042 has resumed for further gain towards 1.2478 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2748-1.2042) and possibly 1.2508 (previous support). Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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