Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-28-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounded on Successful Spanish Bill Auctions

Euro rebounded strongly in European session today after solid bill auction in Spain. Spanish treasury sold EUR 3.6b of bills, exceeding it's maximum target of EUR 3.5b with sharp fall in yield. Yield on 3-month bills dropped to 0.946%, down from 2.434% back in July. Bid-to-cover ratio was at 3.35 times, compared with 2.94 times in last auction. Yield on 6-month bills dropped to 2.026%, down from 3.691% in an auction last month. Though, bid-to-cover ratio dropped to 2.17, down from 3.02 in July. Meanwhile, it's reported that deposits in Spanish banks dropped -4.7% in July. The data looked drastic when comparing to the 2% deposit rise in Greece. Nonetheless, some analysts attributed the fall in Spanish deposits partly to withdrawals for tax payment. And after all, the report was basically ignored. Also to note, ECB president Draghi decided not to attend the Jackson Hole symposium due to "heavy workload foreseen in the next few days." As noted in our technical reports, Euro is still trending well against dollar and yen and thus, we'd expect more upside and EUR/USD and EUR/JPY ahead.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2480; (P) 1.2507 (R1) 1.2526; More.....

EUR/USD's strong rebound today suggests that retreat from 1.2589 has possibly completed at 1.2465 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.2589. Break will confirm resumption of whole rebound from 1.2042 and should target 1.2747 (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764). Below 1.2465 will bring more consolidation. But after all, as EUR/USD is trading well above near term rising trend line (now at 1.2359), rise from 1.2042 is still expected to continue.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 5.9 5.8 5.9
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jul 1.55 1.6
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jul 3.80% 3.20% 3.20%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jun 0.50% -0.20% -0.70%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Aug 60.6 66 65.9 65.4

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency finally rebounded after finding good support at 1.2466 and intra-day rise gathered momentum as European names joined bids, offers at 1.2535-40 and 1.2560 were filled, stops at 1.2570 were also tripped, mixture of offers and stops at 1.2590-00 is now in focus, more stops are placed above 1.2600 barrier but fresh offers should emerge further out at 1.2630-40 (for protection of 1.2650 barrier). On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.2520-30 and also at 1.2500 with some stops placed below 1.2490 and 1.2460 but fresh demand are tipped further out at 1.2430-35 (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9595

Despite intra-day brief bounce to 0.9635, the subsequent selloff suggests the recovery from last week’s low of 0.9540 has ended there and bearishness remains for a retest of this level, once this support is penetrated, this would confirm the decline from 0.9972 top has resumed and extend further weakness to 0.9520, then towards 0.9490-00 which is likely to hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 97.75

Although the single currency has rebounded from 97.90, break of 98.85 is needed to signal the pullback from 99.19 has ended and bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would confirm the rise from temporary low of 94.12 has resumed for a retracement of recent decline to 99.30 and then 99.50 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 100.00 and risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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