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Daily Report: Yen Steady after BoJ, Aussie Up on Job DataIt's a rather busy Asian session today with a long list of economic data released from China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Aussie and Canadian strengthened broadly on overall risk appetite while the former was given additional boost from economic data. European majors continued to consolidate against dollar, without any clear direction. The Japanese yen was a touch lower after BoJ rate decision but quickly settled back into familiar range. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.09; (P) 78.43; (R1) 78.79; More... USD/JPY continues to stay in right range of 77.90/78.77 and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidation from 77.90 might continue further and above 78.77 will bring another rise. But strong resistance would likely be seen at 79.13 support turned resistance to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 77.90 will extend the fall from 80.61 again through 77.66 low to 75.56/76.02 support zone. |
| Special Reports |
BOJ Keeps Its Powder DryAs expected by the majority of analysts, the BOJ ended its August meeting with no change in the monetary policy, i.e. keeping the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0-0.1%, the asset-purchase fund at 45 trillion yen and the lending facility at 25 trillion yen. As both the Fed and the ECB refrained from delivering more easing measures in August, it has become less urgent for the BOJ to act this month. Yet, it does not mean that the central bank would stand on the sideline for the rest of the year. We believe the next trigger for the BOJ to act would be after the Fed's QE3 announcement, a move expected to send the Japanese yen further higher. BOE Reduced UK's Growth Outlook, Blaming Eurozone Crisis For Delaying RecoveryThe BOE inflation report for August revealed the gloomy economic outlook anticipated by policymakers. The GDP growth forecasts were revised lower while inflation is expected to fall below +2.0% from mid-2013 to 2015. The 'unusually uncertain' economic outlook is mainly due to the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether officials would implement sufficient measures to resolve the crisis. EURGBP To Trend Lower Although Further BOE Easing LikelyThe recent selloff in the euro has sent the EURGBP pair to levels not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008. Given the weakness in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, we expect the situation will continue in coming months. This is in spite of the dismal economic outlook in the UK and the likelihood of further easing by the BOE later in the year. While the pound is expected to outperform the single currency, it would probably continue the range-bound trading with the US dollar. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Despite intra-day brief retreat to 78.29, dollar found decent demand from Japanese names and has quickly rebounded, bids from same parties (semi-official names, Japanese lifers and Kampo) remain at 78.30-35 and 78.00-10 and stops are placed below 78.00 but more bids are tipped further out at 77.90, followed by bigger stops below there and 77.60, mixture of bids (option defensive) and stops is expected at 77.45-55 (related to 77.50 barrier). On the upside, offers from exporters are still seen at 78.60 and also in good size at 78.70-80 with indicated stops remain at 78.85 and 79.00, more selling interests are expected further out at 79.15-20 with bigger stops placed above there. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2285Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.2327 (found support right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom), a break of resistance at 1.2402 (yesterday’s high) is needed to signal low is formed and bring another test of 1.2443-44 resistance, however, only break there would signal recent erratic rise from 1.2042 has resumed for further gain towards 1.2478 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2748-1.2042) and possibly 1.2508 (previous support). Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5615Despite yesterday’s brief breach of the Ichimoku cloud bottom, the subsequent rally and the break of resistance at 1.5684 suggest the choppy rise from 1.5490 is still in progress and further gain to 1.5700 would be seen, however, break of resistance at 1.5729 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the decline from 1.5768 has ended at 1.5490, bring further gain towards this resistance at 1.5768 which is likely to hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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