Monday, August 13, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-13-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Climbs after Italian Bill Auctions

Euro strengthens today after Italy managed to sell EUR 8b of one-year bill today with just slightly high yield at 2.767%, comparing to 2.697% at mid-July's auction of similar debt. The relatively steady borrowing costs suggests that markets are buying into ECB's plan of purchasing Spanish and Italian bonds, in particular, towards the shorter ends. Meanwhile, demand in today's auction was also solid, with bid-to-cover ratio at 1.69 times, up from prior 1.55 times. EUR/USD is back above 1.235 at the time of writing and could channel 1.24 level later in the session. Meanwhile EUR/JPY is heading back to 97 level.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2248; (P) 1.2282 (R1) 1.2323; More.....

EUR/USD recovers strongly today but upside is still limited below 1.2443 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 1.2133 support holds, rebound from 1.2042 short term bottom is still expected to continue. Above 1.2443 will target 1.2747 (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764) key resistance level next. However, break of 1.2133 will suggest that rebound from 1.2042 is merely a correction and has completed. In such case, EUR/USD should head for a retest on 1.2 psychological level again.

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Special Reports

RBA Intervention Unlikely Despite AUD Strength

While Australian dollar has so far been moving within a broad range of US$0.95 and US$1.10 since July 2011, its resilience over the past few months has surprised the market. It's conventional wisdom to expect risky asset to decline in tandem with deterioration in global economic prospect, however, Australian dollar gained +10% against the US dollar in the 2 months of June and July even though sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone worsened and China's economic growth demonstrated further signs of fatigue. Recent strength of Australian dollar can be attributed to the relatively higher yield in Australian bonds and higher credit worthiness of the country's assets. Bottoming of the AUD's decline since February was coincided with SNB's intervention. This appeared that investors and official sectors have turned to Australian dollar from Swiss Franc for safe-haven investment.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.30% 0.60% 1.20%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 P -1.10% -0.80% -1.30%
6:00 EUR German WPI M/M Jul 0.30% 0.30% -1.10%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Indicated bids at 1.2260-65 continued to put a floor for the headline pair and the single currency jumped in European session after tripping stops above 1.2300 and 1.2330, offers at 1.2350 were also filled, however, selling interests from funds are still noted at 1.2380-90 with more stops building up above 1.2400-10, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.2440-50. On the downside, bids from Middle East and Eastern European names are raised to 1.2300-10 and decent demand still seen in the region of 1.2260-80 and also at 1.2240-45 with stops building up below there.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9765

Dollar’s intra-day selloff and the breach of the Ichimoku cloud bottom signals top has been formed at 0.9809 last week and test of indicated support at 0.9699 would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm the correction from 0.9656 has ended there, bring retest of this level later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 95.45

Euro’s fall to 95.73 last Friday adds credence to our view that top has been formed at 97.82 and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness to 95.45-55, however, as temporary low is possibly formed at 94.12 earlier, reckon downside would be limited and bring another rise later. A break of 97.25-30 would suggest the fall from 97.82 has possibly ended and bring retest of this resistance, above there would confirm this view of a temporary low formation, bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 97.88

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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