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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Mildly Higher on Risk Aversion ahead of BernankeDollar and yen were both lifted mildly by risk aversion as investors lightened up their position on risk markets ahead of Bernanke's speech. S&P 500 has indeed pulled back to close below 1400 level for the first time since early August while DOW barely closed at 13000.71. Kiwi and Aussie are the worst performing currencies this week and the current market sentiments. But European majors, yen, and even Canadian dollar, managed to stay in range against dollar so far. Technically, the dollar index is still holding on to an important support level at 81.18, as well as a medium term rising trend line. Today's speech from Bernanke would be key to determining dollar's overall direction. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9874; (P) 0.9886; (R1) 0.9907; More. USD/CAD continues to stay in range of 0.9842 and 0.9948 and outlook remains unchanged. Another fall cannot be ruled out yet. But again, we view fall from 1.0445 as a corrective move and expect strong support ahead of 0.9799 to contain downside and bring reversal. On the upside, above 0.9948 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.0065 support turned resistance. Break will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.0445 and target 1.0231 resistance and above. |
| Special Reports |
Previewing Jackson Hole Symposium - Wait Longer For QE3Investors are holding breath ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Reminiscent of the forum held in 2010, investors are full of hopes that Chairman Ben Bernanke would give some hints on the outlook of the Fed's quantitative easing policies. Not wanting to pour cold water but we do not expect much surprise to come from the symposium, mainly due to the fact that many thoughts of policymakers have already been disclosed in the minutes for the August FOMC meeting. We expect the rundown of Bernanke's speech would similar to those made in past years, including discussion of the economic outlook and Fed's policy responses. He would also elaborate more the various options of easing tools, with pros and cons of each being addressed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency dropped yesterday in New York partly due to the early selloff in DJI and stops below 1.2520 and 1.2500 were triggered, however, mixture of bids and stops is still seen at 1.2480-90 with more stops placed below 1.2450-60 and further out at 1.2420-30. On the upside, offers from funds and European names are lowered to 1.2540-50 and also in good size at 1.2565-75, followed by combination of offers and stops in the region of 1.2580-1.2600 (related to 1.2600 barrier), more defensive offers should emerge further out at 1.2630-40 (for protection of next barrier at 1.2650) with bigger stops placed above there. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9660Yesterday’s strong rebound to 0.9617 suggests further choppy trading above 0.9540 (last week’s low) would be seen and near term upside risk remains for test of resistance at 0.9635, break there would bring retracement of recent decline towards 0.9660, however, reckon 0.9670 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9800-0.9540) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below support at 0.9550-53 would signal correction has ended and bring retest of 0.9540 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.00Current breach of minor support at 78.46 adds credence to our view that recovery from 78.27 (last week’s low) has ended at 78.85 and near term downside risk remains for a retest of this support, break there would extend the fall from 79.66 to support at 78.15-16, however, still reckon support at 77.90 would hold from here and bring another rebound later. Above 78.65-70 would bring another test of 78.85 but break there is needed to signal low has been formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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