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Daily Report: Dollar Maintains Post FOMC Minutes WeaknessDollar was sold off sharply overnight as FOMC minutes revived speculation of QE3 and remained weak in Asia today. The Fed released another dovish minutes for the FOMC meeting in August. As the minutes indicated that many members believed that more monetary easing measures should be implemented soon unless upcoming economic data showed 'a substantial and sustainable strengthening' in economic recovery. Further monetary easing has now become a matter of 'when', instead a matter of 'if'. Policymakers considered discussed a variety of easing measures, ranging from language guidance to balance sheet expansion. As the meeting was held before release of the July employment report, we believe the next trigger point would be the September report, together with the Beige book and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Jackson Hole address on August 31. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.12; (P) 78.74; (R1) 79.21; More... Yesterday's sharp fall in USD/JPY and break of 78.78 minor support indicates that rebound from 77.99 is already completed at 79.65. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 77.99 support. Recent price actions from 77.66 should either be a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 79.65, or a five wave triangle pattern. In either case, recovery attempt should be capped below 79.65 resistance and downside breakout is expected eventually. Below 77.99 should extend the fall from 84.17 through 77.66 towards 75.56/76.02 support zone. |
| Special Report |
PBOC Ought To Accelerate Easing Steps, As Recent Data ShowsThe PBOC's injection of a total of RMB 220B through reverse repos to the public (RMB 150B using 7-day contracts at 3.4% and a further RMB70B billion using 14-day contracts at 3.6%) has led many to push back their forecasts of rate cut or RRR reduction by the government. Yet, recent data suggested the world's second largest economy has not benefited much from previous easing implemented by the government. Since out last China Watch, both the FDI and the PMI data missed expectations, suggesting the government should step measures to stimulate the economic growth, ensuring it would meet the target of +7.5% this year. Dovish August Minutes, Fed Signaled Additional Monetary Easing SoonThe Fed released another dovish minutes for the FOMC meeting in August. As the minutes indicated that many members believed that more monetary easing measures should be implemented soon unless upcoming economic data showed 'a substantial and sustainable strengthening' in economic recovery. Further monetary easing has now become a matter of 'when', instead a matter of 'if'. Policymakers considered discussed a variety of easing measures, ranging from language guidance to balance sheet expansion. As the meeting was held before release of the July employment report, we believe the next trigger point would be the September report, together with the Beige book and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address on August 31. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback tumbled overnight after the dovish FOMC and a low of 78.23 was hit in late New York, however, indicated bids from semi-official names at 78.10-20 continued to limit dollar's downside and price has recovered in Tokyo morning on buying by Japanese names. At the moment, light bids are tipped at 78.35-40 and decent demand from semi-official, Japanese lifers and Kampo remain in the region of 78.00-20 with stops building up below 77.90 and further out at 77.50-60 (related to 77.50 barrier). On the upside, offers from various parties (including funds and exporters) are lined up at 78.70 and also at 78.90-00, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 79.15-20 but sizeable offers remain at 79.40-50 and also at 79.65-70. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5830As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone after overnight rally on dollar’s broad-based weakness, suggesting recent upmove from 1.5393 is still in progress and further gain to 1.5909 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6304-1.5269) would be seen, above there would extend gain to 1.5945-50 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5970-75 and psychological resistance at 1.6000 should limit upside. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2500As the single currency has rallied after finding renewed buying interests at 1.2431 yesterday, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and bullishness remains for further gain to 1.2600-10, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2630 and reckon 1.2650-60 would hold on first testing, risk from there is seen for a retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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