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Daily Report: Yen Jumps after Economic Downgrade, Taking Dollar HigherThe Japanese yen surges sharply in Asian session today after the government downgraded the economic outlook for the first time and ten months. In the cabinet office's monthly report, the government note that "weak movements have been seen recently" even though the economy is still expected to be "on the way to recovery at a moderate pace". In particular, view on exports was changed to "weakening" from "picking up". And the reported cited an risks of "further slowing down of overseas economies and sharp fluctuations in the financial and capital markets." Views on personal consumption, home-building, imports and industrial production were also lowered, but the labor market outlook has somewhat showed "signs of improvement". USD/JPY looks set to take on last week's low of 78.33 today and might now be extending the fall fro 79.65 towards 77.66/90 support zone. Weakness in yen crosses also dragged major currencies down against dollar, in particular with AUD/USD extending last week's fall to 1.0350. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.63; (P) 78.74; (R1) 78.84; More... USD/JPY's sharp fall today argues that recovery from 78.33 is finished at 78.84. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 78.33 and break will target 77.90 support next. The overall outlook remains unchanged. That is, price actions from 77.66 are either a consolidation pattern that's completed with three waves to 79.65, or is a five wave triangle pattern. In either case, recovery attempt should now be limited well below 79.65 resistance. Break of 77.99 will indicate that fall from 84.17 is finally resuming for 75.56/84.17 support zone. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped initially this morning in Asia to as low as 1.2466, stops at 1.2475 were tripped, however, bids from Asian and Middle East names lifted the pair from low and buying interests from them remain at 1.2450-60 with stops placed below 1.2430-40, followed by more sizeable stops below 1.2400 (some bids at 1.2410). On the upside, offers are reported at 1.2500-10 and larger sell orders are tipped at 1.2535-40 with some stops placed above 1.2570, mixture of offers and stops in good size is tipped at 1.2590-00 (related to 1.2600 barrier). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9660As dollar has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 0.9582 yesterday (just held around the Ichimoku cloud bottom), retaining our view that near term upside risk remains for retracement of recent decline, however, resistance at 0.9660 should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of 0.9579-82 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and yesterday’s low) would signal top is formed, bring test of support at 0.9559, break there would confirm and bring retest of last week’s low of 0.9540 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2435Although euro recovered after intra-day initial brief fall to 1.2466, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2517) would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.2590 (last week’s high) to bring a deeper correction of recent upmove, however, downside should be limited to support at 1.2431 and bring another rise later. Above the lower Kumo would bring test of 1.2535-36 (yesterday’s high and current level of the upper Kumo) would signal low is formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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