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Mid-Day Report: Yen Selloff Continues, Sterling Up on Retail SalesYen's selloff continues but the selling is concentrated against European majors in early US session. Dollar is steady after mixed US data which saw initial jobless claims edged higher by 2k to 366k in the week ended August 11, slightly above expectation of 365k. Continuing claims dropped by 31k to 3.31m in the week ended August 4. Building permits soared to four year high of 812k annualized rate but housing starts dropped more than expected to 746k annualized rate. The data did little to alter markets' expectation on the US economy and Fed's chance of additional easing. A major focus will remain on US treasury yields which could extend recent sharp rally as bet on Fed Bernanke to announce something significant in the Jackson Hole conference recedes. And such development will trigger deeper selloffs in the yen. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.67; (P) 78.86; (R1) 79.14; More... USD/JPY reaches as high as 79.40 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Fall from 80.61 is completed at 77.90 already. Rebound from there is expected to extend to 9.96 first and the 80.61 next. Current development doesn't warrant the case that fall from 84.17 has reversed. And hence, we'll be cautious on topping signal at around 80.61. Though, break of 78.59 is needed to indicate completion of such rebound. Or, further rally will now remain in favor. |
| Special Reports |
Kiwi To Be Support By Interest Rate Differential And Soft Commodity PricesSimilar to the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar also proved to be resilient despite concerns over global economic slowdown. Strength of the kiwi against the backdrop of sluggish domestic economic recovery after emerging from recession in 2009 has led to talks of official intervention of the currency market. Prime Minister John Key said last week that a strong NZD would make the economy 'splutter and stutter and probably stop' and that 'a rising exchange rate takes pressure off the Reserve Bank. Base rates are still much higher than they are generally around the world -2.5%. There are options, so let's see'. In our opinion, it would be rare for the RBNZ to intervene at the current trend of the NZD. Concerning the outlook, while the kiwi has been pressured by the lack of stimulus from the Fed and the ECB, it would strengthen again in the longer-term as supported by interest rate differential and the rise of soft commodity prices. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has staged a strong rebound after intra-day fall to 1.2256 in part due to soft U.S. data releases and stops above 1.2305-10 and 1.2330 were triggered, however, selling interests are still noted at 1.2345-50, followed by bigger stops building up above 1.2350 and 1.2390-00 (some offers ahead). On the downside, bids from short-term specs are reported at 1.2295-00 and also in good size at 1.2255-60 with mixtures of bids and stops located at 1.2240 and 1.2210-20. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9780Despite intra-day brief rise to 0.9800, current sharp retreat on dollar’s broad-based weakness versus other European currencies has retained our bearishness and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 0.9736 (yesterday’s low) would bring test of indicated support at 0.9697. Looking ahead, a sustained breach below there is needed to signal the correction from 0.9656 has ended at 0.9809, bring retest of this level later, once this support is penetrated, this would signal early decline from 0.9972 top has resumed for weakness to 0.9640 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 96.40Although the single currency has rebounded after finding support at 96.54 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of previous resistance at 97.82 but break there is needed to add credence to our view that a temporary low is possibly formed at 94.12 earlier, bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 97.88 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 101.63-94.12) and then towards resistance around 98.10-15, however, reckon upside would be limited to 98.50-60 and price should falter well below 99.00. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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