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Mid-Day Report: Markets Range Bound, Awaiting Bernanke's Speech TomorrowDollar is mildly lower against European majors and yen but is staying in range so far. Meanwhile, commodity currencies remained generally soft on weakness in global stocks. Data from US saw personal income rose 0.3% in July while spending rose 0.4%. That's the first rise in spending in three months. Headline PCE rose slightly to 1.6% yoy and core PCE moderated to 1.6% yoy. Initial jobless claims was steady at 374k in the week ended August 25. Continuing claims dropped by 5k to 3.32m in the week ended August 18. The data provided little inspiration to markets as all minds are on Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.53; (P) 78.65; (R1) 78.83; More... USD/JPY is staying in range above 78.33 as consolidation continues and intraday bias remains neutral. Above 78.84 will bring another recovery. Though, the overall outlook remains unchanged. That is, price actions from 77.66 are either a consolidation pattern that's completed with three waves to 79.65, or is a five wave triangle pattern. In either case, recovery attempt should be limited well below 79.65 resistance. Break of 77.99 will indicate that fall from 84.17 is finally resuming for 75.56/84.17 support zone. |
| Special Reports |
Previewing Jackson Hole Symposium - Wait Longer For QE3Investors are holding breath ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Reminiscent of the forum held in 2010, investors are full of hopes that Chairman Ben Bernanke would give some hints on the outlook of the Fed's quantitative easing policies. Not wanting to pour cold water but we do not expect much surprise to come from the symposium, mainly due to the fact that many thoughts of policymakers have already been disclosed in the minutes for the August FOMC meeting. We expect the rundown of Bernanke's speech would similar to those made in past years, including discussion of the economic outlook and Fed's policy responses. He would also elaborate more the various options of easing tools, with pros and cons of each being addressed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained confined within near term narrow range, buying interests from Asian names remain at 1.2530, more bids from Middle East names are reported from 1.2520 down to 1.2500, followed by mixture of bids and stops located at 1.2480-90, more stops are expected below 1.2460. On the upside, offers from funds and European names are reported from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 (for protection of 1.2600 barrier), more defensive offers should emerge further out at 1.2630-40 (related to next barrier at 1.2650) with bigger stops placed above there. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9620As dollar recovered after holding above this week’s low of 0.9550, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and another corrective bounce cannot be ruled out, however, resistance at 0.9635 should limit upside and bring another decline later, break of said support would bring a retest of last week’s low of 0.9540, once this support is penetrated, this would confirm the decline from 0.9972 top has resumed and extend further weakness to 0.9520 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 97.75Euro’s rebound after finding support at 97.90 needs to penetrate indicated resistance at 98.85 to signal the pullback from 99.19 has ended there and bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would confirm the rise from temporary low of 94.12 has resumed for a retracement of recent decline to 99.30 and then 99.50 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 100.00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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