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Mid-Day Report: CAD Lower after Job Data, Yen Higher on Risk AversionCanadian dollar weakens sharply in early US session as employment data showed unexpected -30.4k contraction in July, versus consensus of 10.0k growth. Unemployment rate also rose to 7.3% as expected. USD/CAD is seen heading back towards parity for now. Meanwhile, due to weakness in the Canadian dollar, EUR/CAD is trying to recover further from record low of 1.2172 made yesterday. US futures point to lower open, following weakens in global equities. Risk aversion is giving a boost to Japanese yen. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9897; (P) 0.9923; (R1) 0.9937; More. USD/CAD rebounds strongly in early US session and with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral. Note that downside momentum has been diminishing again with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Also, fall from 1.0445 is viewed as a correction only. Hence, even in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9799 low and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1.0065 resistance will be the first signal of near term reversal and will turn focus back to 1.0231 resistance for confirmation. |
| Special Reports |
BOJ Keeps Its Powder DryAs expected by the majority of analysts, the BOJ ended its August meeting with no change in the monetary policy, i.e. keeping the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0-0.1%, the asset-purchase fund at 45 trillion yen and the lending facility at 25 trillion yen. As both the Fed and the ECB refrained from delivering more easing measures in August, it has become less urgent for the BOJ to act this month. Yet, it does not mean that the central bank would stand on the sideline for the rest of the year. We believe the next trigger for the BOJ to act would be after the Fed's QE3 announcement, a move expected to send the Japanese yen further higher. BOE Reduced UK's Growth Outlook, Blaming Eurozone Crisis For Delaying RecoveryThe BOE inflation report for August revealed the gloomy economic outlook anticipated by policymakers. The GDP growth forecasts were revised lower while inflation is expected to fall below +2.0% from mid-2013 to 2015. The 'unusually uncertain' economic outlook is mainly due to the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether officials would implement sufficient measures to resolve the crisis. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained under pressure on risk aversion and bids from Spanish names and corps at 1.2260 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.2240 is now in focus, however, more buying interests in good size should emerge further out at 1.2220-30 with bigger stops placed below 1.2220 and 1.2200. On the upside, offers from funds and U.S. names are tipped at 1.2280 and also at 1.2300, combination of offers and stops is located at 1.2320-30, followed by fresh sell orders at 1.2350 and further out at 1.2380-90 with more stops building up above 1.2400-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9820Although yesterday’s rise to 0.9790 suggests near term upside risk remains for the rebound from last week’s low of 0.9656 to extend gain towards 0.9810-20, however, as this move is still viewed as a strong retracement of the fall from 0.9898, upside should be limited to resistance at 0.9830, bring retreat later. Below 0.9744 (previous resistance) would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9712) but break of 0.9699 (yesterday’s low) is needed to signal top is formed and bring weakness to indicated support at 0.9689 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0355Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.0615, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggests a minor top is formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 1.0437 support and possibly 1.0395-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0177-1.0615), however, reckon 1.0340-45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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