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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Consolidations Continue ahead of FOMCMarkets are generally steady today as traders are awaiting FOMC rate decision. Data from US saw ISM manufacturing dropped to 49.8 in July, back in contraction region. Price paid component rose less than expected to 39.5. ADP employment rose more than expected by 163k in July. Construction spending rose 0.4% mom in June. Nonetheless markets have little reactions to the data. More consolidative trading would be seen before Fed's announcement. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.01; (P) 78.15; (R1) 78.27; More... No follow through selling was seen in USD/JPY after the dip to 77.90 earlier today. Nonetheless, near term outlook remains mildly bearish with 78.67 resistance intact. Current fall from 80.61 is expected to continue to retest 77.66 low. However, break of 78.67 resistance will in turn argue that a short term bottom is formed and will bring further rise back to 79.13 and above. |
| Special Reports |
Fed To Extend Low-Rate Guidance Until 2015, QE3 To Be Announced In SeptemberWe expect the Fed would continue to leave the QE3 decision on hold in August as the better timing for action would be in September when two employment reports would be released for gauging the impacts of extension of operation twist in June. Moreover, a press conference will be held and staff forecasts will be published by then. Yet, what the Fed might do to drive sentiment in August might be extending the low rate guidance to 2015 and pledging the Fed would use whatever tools to stimulate the economy. ECB to Disappoint in AugustThe market has been eagerly awaiting the ECB meeting which will be held Thursday after President Mario Draghi's comment last week that the central bank would do whatever it can to preserve the euro. This has raised speculations that the ECB would resume bond purchases in the form of SMP. However, there are many hurdles to this move, in particular opposition of the Bundesbank. While the case of ECB purchases of bond has greatly increased due to worsening of situations in Spain and Italy, the timing of the move is an important issue. The ECB obviously prefer to see the Spanish government request support from the EFSF with conditionality in place before the central bank's involvement in bond purchases. However, this may not come earlier than the Thursday. In such case, we expect the ECB would not announce SMP in August, leaving it to September possibly. We also believe the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged this month, after the surprising rate cut in July. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency retreated after the release of slightly better-than-expected U.S. ADP employment data, the soft U.S. PMI data (slowest rise in new orders since Sep 2009) helped to lift euro from 1.2285. At the moment, offers are still noted at 1.2335-40 with stops remain above 1.2345 and 1.2360, larger sell orders are tipped at 1.2380-00 region (for protection of 1.2400 barrier). On the downside, decent demand from U.S. banks are reported at 1.2270-80 and 1.2250 with some stops placed below 1.2240-45, more buying interests remain at 1.2220-30, followed by larger stops building up below 1.2220 and 1.2200. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2275Although the single currency has rebounded again after intra-day retreat to 1.2281 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, break of 1.2345-50 is needed to signal the pullback from 1.2390 has ended at 1.2225 and bring a retest of this level, then previous resistance at 1.2401-08 but reckon upside would be limited to 1.2444 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of intermediate fall from 1.2693-1.2042). Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0390Although aussie has maintained a firm undertone after early breach of indicated resistance at 1.0445 and recent upmove from 0.9581 may extend gain to 1.0558 (previous resistance) and possibly 1.0590-00, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp rise beyond 1.0630-40 and risk from there is seen for a correction to take place soon. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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