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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Yen Steady after GDP Miss, Markets ConsolidateMarkets are rather quiet as the week starts. Japan's GDP grew only 0.3% qoq in 2Q12, well below expectations of 0.6% qoq and 1.2% qoq in the first quarter. The major disappointment came from weak consumer spending. Although the government has been giving subsidies on a number of green products since the earthquake last year, the impact on stimulating spending has been limited. As the positive effect of the subsidies fades, Japan's consumption outlook is expected to weaken further in coming quarters, an outlook that would hurt investors' confidence. Nikkei is nearly flat at the time of writing while the Japanese yen is stuck in range against other major currencies. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 122.03; (P) 122.49; (R1) 123.18; More... GBP/JPY is still bounded in range of 120.82/123.77 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 123.77/79 resistance will confirm completion of the pull back from 125.82. More importantly, this will argue that whole rebound from 118.82 is resuming for 125.82 and above. On the downside, however, break of 120.82 will extend the decline from 125.82 to retest 118.82 low. |
| Special Reports |
China To Push Easing Further As Inflation Falls To 2 Year LowThe set of Chinese economic data for July indicated that slowdown in the world's second largest economy continued in the second half of the year. Previous easing measures appeared to have done little to boost economic activities, as shown in the July data. Going forward, we believe the government would add more easing measures in terms of reverse repos and RRR cut. However, the more appropriate and likely timing would be in August as inflation has probably bottomed in July. The central bank would probably feel less comfortable to ease aggressively as inflation rebounds. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Despite Friday's selloff to 78.16, indicated bids from semi-official names, Japanese lifers and Kampo at 78.00-10 continued to put a floor for the headline pair and bids from them are still seen there with sizeable stops placed below 78.00 and also below 77.90, followed by bigger stops at 77.60, mixture of bids (option defensive) and stops remains at 77.45-55 (related to 77.50 barrier). On the upside, offers from exporters are lowered to 78.40-50 and also at 78.70-80 with sizeable stops placed above latter level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2225Although euro rebounded after Friday’s brief fall to 1.2241-42, above 1.2327-32 (previous support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) is needed to suggest low is possibly formed and bring a stronger round to 1.2350-60, above there would add credence to this view and extend gain towards previous resistance of 1.2387. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.05Lack of follow through buying on last week’s brief breach of 78.78 and the subsequent selloff from 78.80 suggests near term downside risk remain for marginal weakness, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, support at 77.90 should limit downside and bring another round later. Above 78.50-55 would suggest low is formed, bring test of indicated resistance at 78.80-85 but break there is needed to revive bullishness and signal the rise from 77.90 low has resumed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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