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Daily Report: Yen Soft in Asian Markets, BoE Minutes and Economic Data AwaitedThe Japanese yen remains broadly soft as weighed down by expectation of further easing from BoJ, as indicated by yesterday's BoJ minutes. However, lost is so far very limited with USD/JPY capped well below 79.13 near term resistance. It should be noted that data released earlier this week showed that BoJ's government bond holding totalled as much as JPY 80.97T as of last Friday. The number exceeded BoJ's self-imposed cap of the JPY 80.79T worth of bank notes in circulation. While, the central also said that bond-purchases under the stimulus program are excepted from the rule, the size of the balance sheet would still limit the size of any further expansion in the quantitative easing program. At least, BoJ will remain careful in avoiding an impression of debt monetization. Technically, the strength in yen crosses isn't very convincing so far. And while we'd favor some more upside in yen crosses, we'll remain cautious. | |
Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 122.81; (P) 123.36; (R1) 123.96; More... Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. As noted before, prior break of 123.77 suggests that the choppy correction from 125.82 is already completed. And, rebound from 118.82 is finally resuming. Further rise should be seen to 125.82 resistance next and break will confirm this bullish case. However, a break below 122.40 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn outlook mixed again. |
Special Reports |
RBA Intervention Unlikely Despite AUD StrengthWhile Australian dollar has so far been moving within a broad range of US$0.95 and US$1.10 since July 2011, its resilience over the past few months has surprised the market. It's conventional wisdom to expect risky asset to decline in tandem with deterioration in global economic prospect, however, Australian dollar gained +10% against the US dollar in the 2 months of June and July even though sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone worsened and China's economic growth demonstrated further signs of fatigue. Recent strength of Australian dollar can be attributed to the relatively higher yield in Australian bonds and higher credit worthiness of the country's assets. Bottoming of the AUD's decline since February was coincided with SNB's intervention. This appeared that investors and official sectors have turned to Australian dollar from Swiss Franc for safe-haven investment. |
Economic Indicators Update | Learn Expert Strategies to Profit in a Presidential Election Year. Join me at this year's MoneyShow San Francisco, August 24-26, at the San Francisco Marriott Marquis and be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit - in 2012 and beyond! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency traded within narrow range after yesterday's choppy moves in part due to holidays in almost half of European markets, whilst bids from Middle East names at 1.2320 were filled, more buying interests from them are still noted at 1.2300 with stops building up below 1.2290, followed by mixture of bids and stops in good size in the region of 1.2240-60. On the upside, selling interests from funds and U.S. names remain at 1.2380-90 with stops building up above there but fresh offers should emerge around 1.2400 and further out at 1.2440-50 with bigger stops placed above 1.2450 barrier. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD Sell at 1.5705Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.5730, the subsequent retreat and the two candlesticks with long upper shadows suggest top is possibly formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5647) but break there is needed to confirm this view, bring further weakness to 1.5600-10, however, downside should be limited to support at 1.5573-78. Trade Idea: USD/JPY Buy at 78.40As dollar has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 78.80 yesterday, suggesting the rise from 77.90 low is still in progress for at least a stronger retracement of recent decline from 80.63 to next resistance at 79.17 and possibly towards 79.40-50, however, loss of near term momentum would limit upside and reckon 79.97-00 would cap upside. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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