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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Stays Weak, But Could Get Support from Stock RetreatsDollar remains weak against European majors and yen in early US session, as it's still pressured by FOMC minutes revived expectation of QE3. Nonetheless, commodity currencies seem to be refusing to participate in the party against dollar. Risk appetite was no strong as European major indices pared earlier gains with DAX and CAC indeed turned red. US futures also turn to a mild lower opening after initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose back to 372k in the week ended August 18 and took the four week moving average up to 368k. Continuing claims also rose slightly to 3.32m in the week ended August 11. We'll see if the greenback could find some support from risk aversion today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5801; (P) 1.5842; (R1) 1.5918; More... GBP/USD retreats mildly after climbing to 1.5908 and hit mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5268 at 1.5906. With 1.5817 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Sustained trading above 1.5906 will pave the way to 1.6300 key resistance level next. However, break of 1.5817 will indicate short term topping and would drag GBP/USD back to 1.5489/5767 support zone at least. |
| Special Report |
PBOC Ought To Accelerate Easing Steps, As Recent Data ShowsThe PBOC's injection of a total of RMB 220B through reverse repos to the public (RMB 150B using 7-day contracts at 3.4% and a further RMB70B billion using 14-day contracts at 3.6%) has led many to push back their forecasts of rate cut or RRR reduction by the government. Yet, recent data suggested the world's second largest economy has not benefited much from previous easing implemented by the government. Since out last China Watch, both the FDI and the PMI data missed expectations, suggesting the government should step measures to stimulate the economic growth, ensuring it would meet the target of +7.5% this year. Dovish August Minutes, Fed Signaled Additional Monetary Easing SoonThe Fed released another dovish minutes for the FOMC meeting in August. As the minutes indicated that many members believed that more monetary easing measures should be implemented soon unless upcoming economic data showed 'a substantial and sustainable strengthening' in economic recovery. Further monetary easing has now become a matter of 'when', instead a matter of 'if'. Policymakers considered discussed a variety of easing measures, ranging from language guidance to balance sheet expansion. As the meeting was held before release of the July employment report, we believe the next trigger point would be the September report, together with the Beige book and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address on August 31. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to consolidate after yesterday's late rally and further sideways trading is likely to be seen in the near term. At the moment, fair size bids from various names are still noted at 1.2530-35, then 1.2500-10 with some stops placed below 1.2480 but fresh demand from Asian names should emerge around 1.2450-60 and also at 1.2430-35 with stops building up below there. On the upside, mixtures of offers (for profit-taking) and stops are still seen at 1.2575-80 and in good size further out at 1.2600-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9650As dollar has fallen again after brief recovery to 0.9660 yesterday, adding credence to our bearish view that early decline from 0.9972 top is still in progress and further weakness to 0.9540-50 and then 0.9520 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.9490-00 and reckon 0.9470 would hold from here, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 97.75Despite rising to 99.19 earlier this week, yesterday’s retreat after faltering below this resistance suggests consolidation below this level would take place and test of 98.12 (yesterday’s low) is likely, however, reckon this week’s low at 97.75 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from temporary low of 94.12 for a retracement of recent decline to 99.30 and possibly to 99.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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