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Mid-Day Report: European Majors Retreated, Following Selloff in EquitiesEuropean majors finally aligned themselves against broader risk markets today and weakened against dollar and yen. In a statement released today, rating agency Fitch noted that "sovereign bond purchases by the ECB in the secondary market and primary market purchases by the EFSF or ESM would likely be credit positive and ease downward pressure on sovereign ratings in the eurozone". Fitch said this could "allow the sovereign to retain affordable access to market funding". However, Fitch also warned that if ECB's bond buying is "to substitute" rather than "support market access", " the reliance on policy-conditional external financial support would not be consistent with a high investment-grade sovereign rating (single 'A' category and above).". And, "prolonged reliance on official external support" will place "further downward pressure on sovereign ratings. Meanwhile, it's reported that ECB will wait for Germany's Constitutional Court ruling on ESM before unveiling the details of the bond buying program. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2528; (P) 1.2558 (R1) 1.2594; More..... The break of 1.2487 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place at 1.2589 after hitting upper trend line resistance. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for some consolidations. But again, note that another rise will remain in favor as long as 1.2255 support holds. Above 1.2589 will extend the rebound from 1.2042 towards 1.2747 (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764). However, break of 1.2255 will indicate that rebound from 1.2042 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for a new low. |
| Special Report |
PBOC Ought To Accelerate Easing Steps, As Recent Data ShowsThe PBOC's injection of a total of RMB 220B through reverse repos to the public (RMB 150B using 7-day contracts at 3.4% and a further RMB70B billion using 14-day contracts at 3.6%) has led many to push back their forecasts of rate cut or RRR reduction by the government. Yet, recent data suggested the world's second largest economy has not benefited much from previous easing implemented by the government. Since out last China Watch, both the FDI and the PMI data missed expectations, suggesting the government should step measures to stimulate the economic growth, ensuring it would meet the target of +7.5% this year. Japan's July Trade Report Unveils Global Weakness In Third QuarterJapan's July trade report evidenced that the country's economic recovery was dampened by global economic slowdown. While the headline deficit figure was largely inline with market expectations, the steep decline in exports, due both to global economic slowdown and strength in Japanese yen) generated much concern, not only due to the free fall in shipment to Europe, but also because of the accelerated pace of the decline to Asia, especially China. The report suggested that Japan's economic growth would increasingly be reliant on domestic demand which would unlikely be sufficient to boost the country GDP growth to a meaningful extent. The report signaled that dismal exports would continue to trim Japan's growth in 3Q12. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency slipped in European session on stop-hunting and partly due to profit-taking ahead of weekend, stops below 1.2520 and 1.2500 were triggered but buying interests from various parties are still noted at 1.2480 and around 1.2450-60 from Asian names, followed by mixture of bids and stops located at 1.2420-30. On the upside, sell orders are lowered to 1.2525-30 and also at 1.2550-55 with some stops placed above 1.2570 but sizeable option defensive offers remain at 1.2590-00 with stops building up above 1.2600-10 and 1.2650. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9650As dollar has recovered after falling to 0.9540 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and retracement to 0.9620-29 (previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9773-0.9540) would be seen, however, resistance at 0.9660 should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of intra-day support at 0.9555 would bring retest of yesterday’s low at 0.9540, break there would signal early decline from 0.9972 top has resumed Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 97.75Euro’s near term sideways trading is likely to continue and although the retreat from 99.19 may bring minor correction to 98.00, reckon this week’s low at 97.75 would limit downside and bring another rise later, a break of said resistance would extend the rise from temporary low of 94.12 for a retracement of recent decline to 99.30 and possibly to 99.50 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 100.00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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