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Mid-Day Report: Euro Stuck in Range Despite Successful Italian Bill AuctionMarkets continue to stay in tight range in early US session with dollar recovering mildly against Euro and yen. Meanwhile, selloff in EUR/GBP popped GBP/USD and GBP/JPY mildly higher. Italy sold EUR 9b of 5 month bills today, exceeding its maximum target. Yield dropped sharply to 1.585%, down fro 2.45% in July auction. Bid-to-cover ratio also improved slightly to 1.69 times, up from prior 1.61 times. Though, markets have little reaction to that and would look forward to tomorrow's biggest test of EUR 6.5b auction in 5- and 10-year bonds. Meanwhile, from US, Q2 GDP was revised higher to 1.7% annualized. Canadian IPPI dropped -0.5% mom while RMPI rose 0.9% mom in July. German CPI rose more than expected to 2.0% yoy in August. Swiss KOF leading indicator improved to 1.57 in August. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.38; (P) 78.57; (R1) 78.70; More... USD/JPY recovers mildly as consolidation from 78.33 continues and intraday bias remains neutral. Such consolidation might extend further and above 78.84 will bring another recovery. Though, the overall outlook remains unchanged. That is, price actions from 77.66 are either a consolidation pattern that's completed with three waves to 79.65, or is a five wave triangle pattern. In either case, recovery attempt should be limited well below 79.65 resistance. Break of 77.99 will indicate that fall from 84.17 is finally resuming for 75.56/84.17 support zone. |
| Special Reports |
Previewing Jackson Hole Symposium - Wait Longer For QE3Investors are holding breath ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Reminiscent of the forum held in 2010, investors are full of hopes that Chairman Ben Bernanke would give some hints on the outlook of the Fed's quantitative easing policies. Not wanting to pour cold water but we do not expect much surprise to come from the symposium, mainly due to the fact that many thoughts of policymakers have already been disclosed in the minutes for the August FOMC meeting. We expect the rundown of Bernanke's speech would similar to those made in past years, including discussion of the economic outlook and Fed's policy responses. He would also elaborate more the various options of easing tools, with pros and cons of each being addressed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has continued to move lower after retreating from yesterday's high of 1.2577, however, buying interests from Asian names remain at 1.2520 with sizeable bids from Middle East and Russian names are tipped at 1.2500-10, followed by mixture of bids and stops located at 1.2480-90, more stops are expected below 1.2460. On the upside, offers from funds and European names are noted from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 (for protection of 1.2600 barrier), more defensive offers should emerge further out at 1.2630-40 (related to next barrier at 1.2650) with bigger stops placed above there. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2525Yesterday’s strong rebound from 1.2466 to 1.2577 signals the pullback from last week’s high of 1.2590 has ended there and a retest of this resistance would be seen, break there would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.2610, then towards 1.2640-50 which is likely to hold from here due to near term overbought condition, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 97.75Although the single currency staged a strong rebound from 97.90 (yesterday’s low), a break of 98.85 is needed to signal the pullback from 99.19 has ended and bring retest of this level, once this resistance is penetrated, this would confirm the rise from temporary low of 94.12 has resumed for a retracement of recent decline to 99.30 and then 99.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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