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Mid-Day Report: Yen Sold Off as NFP Beat ExpectationsDollar rebounds versus the Japanese yen in early US session after better than expected employment data from US. Non-farm payroll showed 163k growth in the job market in June, best number since February. Unemployment rate, though, rose slightly to 8.3%. The FOMC statement released earlier this week was essentially unchanged from last meeting, which was a disappointment to investors who hoped for hints on additional easing. Fed would still wait for updated projections in September's meeting. Today's employment data raised hope that the US economy will perform better in Q3 and thus giver Fed more rooms to wait and see. The Japanese yen is sold off broadly after the release and the data will also boost up US treasury yield. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.04; (P) 78.29; (R1) 78.47; More... USD/JPY rebounds stronger in early US session and the break of 78.67 minor resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 77.90. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen back to 79.13 resistance. Break will confirm completion of whole fall from 80.61 and will target this resistance next. |
| Special Reports |
ECB Stands on the Sideline, Pledges to Defend the Euro with Bond PurchasesAs we had anticipated, the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged. At the press conference President Draghi reiterated his comments made last week in London that there's a need to contain risk premia in the bond yields of some countries. While the governments have adopted various measures, including fiscal consolidation, structural reform, European institution building and activation of the EFSF/ ESM when circumstances dictate under the strict and effective conditionality embedded in the existing arrangements, to address the issue, they are not sufficient and he, therefore, announced that the central bank would make outright purchases of sovereign debts with the emphasis on independence. The Fed Left Policy Setting Unchanged, Kept Interest Rates Low Until Late 2014The FOMC meeting was a rather disappointing one as policymakers failed to deliver any new measures to boost the deteriorating economy. While we had anticipated that the Fed would be refrained from announcing QE3 in August, we thought it would at least extend the low rate guidance to 2015. Yet, the Fed decided to leave it unchanged. Policymakers were maintaining easing bias but few changes were found in the languages of the accompanying statement. We expect the Fed was still gauging the impacts of the operation twist which was extended last month. We maintain our view that the QE3 will be announced at the next meeting. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar has maintained a firm undertone after intra-day cross-inspired rally, stops above 78.60-70 were triggered, more indicated stops at 78.85 and 79.00 are now in focus but offers from exporters are tipped below 79.00 and 79.15-20 with bigger stops placed above latter level. On the downside, bids are raised to 78.40-50 and also at 78.20, demand from semi-official names remain at 78.00-10 with sizeable stops below 77.90, option defensive bids are still seen at 77.55-65 with even bigger stops placed below 77.60 and 77.50 barrier. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell on break of 1.2220Despite intra-day rally to 1.2292, lack of follow through buying on break of the upper Kumo and current retreat on dollar’s broad-based rebound after the release of better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls suggest top is possibly formed but break of 1.2220 is needed to add credence to this view and extend weakness towards intra-day support at 1.2170, break there would confirm the rebound from 1.2134 has ended, then retest of this level and indicated support at 1.2110-20 would follow. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Hold short entered at 0.7875Despite yesterday’s fall to 0.7824, lack of follow through selling and current strong rebound have dampened our bearishness and 0.7914-15 needs to hold to retain bearish prospect for another retreat, below said support would signal top is formed and bring test of next support at 0.7791, however, break there is needed to confirm the correction from recent low of 0.7756 has ended there, bring retest of this level. Looking ahead, once this support is penetrated, this would confirm downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to 0.7738 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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