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Daily Report: USD/JPY Rally Accelerates With Treasury YieldsUSD/JPY's rally accelerates further today as more investors are scaling back expectations for Fed to announce additional easing in the near future. That's be very well reflected in this week's sharp rally in US treasury yields. 10 year yield jumped strongly in late New York trading overnight t o close at 1.805% after hitting a three month high of 1.812%. The picture is even more drastic if we compare with the intraday historical low of 1.394% made on July 24, i.e., less than a month ago. 30 year yield also rose further to close at 2.914%, comparing to the intraday record low of 2.452% made on July 25. USD/JPY's break of 79.13 resistance today bears short term bullish implication and we're now looking at the next resistance level at 80.61 in near term. Dollar is also broadly firm except versus Canadian dollar. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.67; (P) 78.86; (R1) 79.14; More... USD/JPY's rebound from 77.90 accelerates to as high as 79.34 so far today. The strong break of 79.13 support turned resistance indicates that fall from 80.61 is finished. Intraday bias is on the upside and current rebound should target 79.96 first and the 80.61 next. Current development doesn't warrant the case that fall from 84.17 has reversed. And hence, we'll be cautious on topping signal at around 80.61. Though, break of 78.59 is needed to indicate completion of such rebound. Or, further rally will now remain in favor. |
| Special Reports |
Kiwi To Be Support By Interest Rate Differential And Soft Commodity PricesSimilar to the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar also proved to be resilient despite concerns over global economic slowdown. Strength of the kiwi against the backdrop of sluggish domestic economic recovery after emerging from recession in 2009 has led to talks of official intervention of the currency market. Prime Minister John Key said last week that a strong NZD would make the economy 'splutter and stutter and probably stop' and that 'a rising exchange rate takes pressure off the Reserve Bank. Base rates are still much higher than they are generally around the world -2.5%. There are options, so let's see'. In our opinion, it would be rare for the RBNZ to intervene at the current trend of the NZD. Concerning the outlook, while the kiwi has been pressured by the lack of stimulus from the Fed and the ECB, it would strengthen again in the longer-term as supported by interest rate differential and the rise of soft commodity prices. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback continued to move higher after yesterday's brief retreat from 79.06 to 78.60 on stop-hunting, indicated stops at 79.20 and 79.30 were tripped, however, more selling interests from exporters are still noted at 79.40-50 with bigger stop orders expected above latter level but decent offers remain in the region of 79.90-80.10. On the downside, bids from various parties raised to 79.00-05 and also at 78.65-75 with stops building up below 78.50-55 as well as 78.30 but demand from semi-official names are tipped at 78.10-20. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5680As the British pound has dropped again after meeting renewed selling interests at 1.5702 yesterday (right at the Ichimoku cloud top) and the breach of indicated support at 1.5657-61 signal top has been formed at 1.5730 and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness towards indicated support at 1.5573-78. Having said that, only breach of this level would retain bearishness and signal the rise from 1.5490 has ended, then weakness to next support at 1.5547 would be seen later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.65Although the greenback retreated yesterday from 79.06, as renewed buying interests emerged above the Ichimoku cloud top and the pair has rallied again from 78.60, adding credence to our bullishness for recent rise to extend further gain to 79.45-50, however, loss of near term momentum would limit upside to 79.70-75 and reckon 79.97-00 would cap upside. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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