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Daily Report: Risk Appetite Lost Steam, Focus on BoE Inflation ReportRisk appetite is losing some steam in Asia today even though S&P 500 managed to close above 1400 level for the first time since May overnight. Euro is struggling to find sustainable buying to extend last week's rebound while other major currencies also weakened mildly against dollar and yen in Asian session. S&P lowered Greece's CCC rating outlook to negative from stable. The rating agency noted that it reflects the "possibility of a downgrade if Greece fails to secure the next disbursement of the EU/IMF Program." And the rating agency noted that "deepening contraction" in Greece implies a "high likelihood" that additional financing of as much as EUR 7b is needed this year. Meanwhile, S&P also noted that such estimate could be reduced if the target deficit reduction for Greece or other burdens could be eased. Earlier this week, , it's reported that IMF is pushing Eurozone leaders to lower Greece's burden, possibly in form of lowering interest rates on loan to Greece, ECB and others to have another 30% haircuts. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7921; (P) 0.7939; (R1) 0.7955; More... EUR/GBP's rebound lost momentum after hitting 0.7962 and faced some resistance of 0.7949. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral first. Note again that EUR/GBP is still trading well inside near term falling channel and thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal. A break below 0.7872 minor support will retain the bearish outlook and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7755. However, another rally and decisive break of 0.8 psychological level will put focus back to 0.8156 key resistance level. |
| Special Reports |
EURGBP To Trend Lower Although Further BOE Easing LikelyThe recent selloff in the euro has sent the EURGBP pair to levels not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008. Given the weakness in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, we expect the situation will continue in coming months. This is in spite of the dismal economic outlook in the UK and the likelihood of further easing by the BOE later in the year. While the pound is expected to outperform the single currency, it would probably continue the range-bound trading with the US dollar. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2295As the single currency has retreated after faltering below last week’s high of 1.2444 yesterday, suggesting further consolidation below this resistance would take place and test of 1.2342 support cannot be ruled out, break there would bring retracement of early rise to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.2308) but renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.2289 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2134-1.2444) and bring another rally. Above intra-day resistance at 1.2402 would bring another test of 1.2443-44 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 78.25Although the greenback rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 78.15 earlier this week, as dollar has retreated after faltering below last week’s high of 78.78, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen but as long as support at 78.15 holds, bullishness remains for another rebound later, above said resistance at 78.78 would signal the rise from 77.90 low has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent decline from 80.63 towards next resistance at 79.17 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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