Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Rebounds after Retail Sales, Yen Broadly Lower

Economic data are the main drivers in market today. Dollar rebounds in early US session after much stronger than expected retail sales data. Headline sales rose an impressive 0.8% in July with ex-auto sales up 0.8% too. Both were better than consensus of 0.3%. Meanwhile, headline PPI slowed to 0.5% yoy as expected, but core PPI moderated just slightly to 2.5% yoy versus expectation of 2.3% yoy. The greenback, despite the rebound, is staying in familiar range against most major currencies. USD/JPY being the main except which took out 78.78 minor resistance and is heading towards 79.13 resistance. Also, the Japanese yen is seen broadly lower, following strength in European equities and US stock futures.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 78.19; (P) 78.28; (R1) 78.40; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 77.90 resumed today by taking out 78.78 and reached as high as 78.93 so far. Further rise could be seen but after all, we'll stay bearish as long as 79.13 resistance holds. Decline from 80.61 remains in favor to continue and below 78.5 should send USD/JPY through 77.90 to 77.66 low. Though, note that decisive break of 79.13 will dampen our view and bring stronger rally back to 80.61 resistance instead.

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Special Reports

RBA Intervention Unlikely Despite AUD Strength

While Australian dollar has so far been moving within a broad range of US$0.95 and US$1.10 since July 2011, its resilience over the past few months has surprised the market. It's conventional wisdom to expect risky asset to decline in tandem with deterioration in global economic prospect, however, Australian dollar gained +10% against the US dollar in the 2 months of June and July even though sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone worsened and China's economic growth demonstrated further signs of fatigue. Recent strength of Australian dollar can be attributed to the relatively higher yield in Australian bonds and higher credit worthiness of the country's assets. Bottoming of the AUD's decline since February was coincided with SNB's intervention. This appeared that investors and official sectors have turned to Australian dollar from Swiss Franc for safe-haven investment.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q2 1.30% 0.70% -1.50% -0.60%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jul -24.00% -24.00% -22.00%
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun 0.10% -0.30% 0.70% 0.90%
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jul 4 -3
05:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.00% -0.20% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.30% 0.10% 0.50%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M Jul -0.30% -0.20% -0.30%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y Jul -1.80% -1.70% -2.20%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul 0.10% -0.10% -0.40%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 2.60% 2.30% 2.40%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jul 2.30% 2.00% 2.10%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul 0.10% -0.10% -0.20%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul 3.20% 2.90% 2.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 A -0.20% -0.20% 0.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun -0.60% -0.20% 0.60% 0.90%
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Aug -25.5 -19.6 -19.6
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Aug 18.2 18 21.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Aug -21.2 -19.1 -22.3
12:30 USD PPI M/M Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jul 0.50% 0.50% 0.70%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jul 0.40% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jul 2.50% 2.30% 2.60%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jul 0.80% 0.30% -0.50% -0.70%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jul 0.80% 0.30% -0.40% -0.80%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.10% 0.30% 0.30%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: The pair surged after the release of BOJ minutes and intra-day rally gathered momentum in European and U.S. morning in part due to the release of U.S. data, offers and stops at 78.80-90 were cleared, however, more sell orders are still noted at 79.00-10 with more stops placed above 79.20, fresh selling interest from exporters are expected to emerge around 79.40-50. On the downside, bids from various parties are tipped at 78.50-60 and also at 78.30 with decent demand from semi-official names remain at 78.10-20 with stops placed below 78.00 and 77.90.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9775

Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9697, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 0.9699 and current rebound suggest further consolidation would be seen and test of intra-day resistance at 0.9743 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon yesterday’s high of 0.9793 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A sustained breach of said support would signal the correction from 0.9656 has ended at 0.9809, bring retest of this level later, once this support is penetrated, this would signal early decline from 0.9972 top has resumed

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0355

Aussie’s consolidation below last week’s high of 1.0615 is expected to continue and although initial mid downside bias is seen for retracement to 1.0437 support and 1.0395-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0177-1.0615), reckon 1.0340-45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.0615 would extend upmove from 0.9581 to 1.0650 and possibly towards 1.0700 but price should falter below resistance at 1.0753, bring another corrective fall later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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