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Daily Report: Euro Steady after ECB Rumor, Focus Turning to GreeceAs the rumor of ECB's plan to cap yields faded, the common currency remains bounded in range against other major currencies. Focus will shift to Greece first as prime minister Samaras will meet with Luxembourg Juncker tomorrow and then German Merkel and French Hollande later in the week. It's reported that Greece is detailing a EUR 11.5b austerity plan in 2013/14 before meeting with the European leaders and targets to get troika approval by mid-September. The outlook will be first be presented to Juncker and is believed to include broad cut in pension benefits as well as wage reductions and layoffs in the public sector. In addition, Samaras is expected to lobby the leaders in support Greece's proposal of extending the fiscal adjustment program for two years as the country is facing deepened recession. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 97.73; (P) 98.04; (R1) 98.35; More With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first. Another rise remains mildly in favor with 95.71 support intact. Above 98.40 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 111.43 to 94.11 at 110.72 next. However, break of 95.71 will indicate completion of such choppy rebound and argue that fall from 114.34 is resuming for another low below 94.11. |
| Special Report |
RBA Minutes Gave No Hint On The Next Rate DecisionThe RBA's minutes for the August meeting contained few surprises, as most of the issues were covered in the RBA quarterly Statement on Policy which was released several days after the August meeting. The minutes confirmed that the RBA acknowledged the peak in mining capex and the improvement in the outlook for housing construction from 2H2012. While keeping the cash rate unchanged at 3.5%, policymakers delivered no hints on the next move. Yet, we believe another rate cut would be announced in the fourth quarter as unemployment will probably increase due to tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has continued to edge higher after rebounding from yesterday's low of 1.2296, Swiss bank and CTA were seen buying the pair this round, offers in the region of 1.2380-1.2400 and stops above there are now in focus, more selling interests from funds are tipped further out at 1.2440-50 (related to barrier at 1.2450) with bigger stops placed above there. On the downside, bids from same parties plus short-term specs are raised to 1.2350-55 with some stops placed below 1.2340 but fresh demand should emerge around 1.2320 and 1.2295-00 with more stops building up below 1.2280-90, then 1.2250. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5695Cable’s rebound after holding above previous support at 1.5674 suggests a retest of 1.5745 would be seen, however, break there is needed to confirm recent rise has resumed and extend further gain to previous resistance at 1.5768 but only above there would retain bullishness and bring subsequent rise towards 1.5800-10. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2340As the single currency has continued to move higher after yesterday’s rebound from 1.2296 (just held above Friday’s low at 1.2289), suggesting a test of indicated resistance at 1.2386-87 would be seen, above there would signal the fall from 1.2444 has ended at 1.2242 and bring further gain to 1.2400-10 and possibly towards said resistance at 1.2444, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal upmove has resumed to 1.2470 and possibly towards 1.2490-00. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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