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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Euro Tumbled as the Year Started, More Downside to Come, Watch Italian YieldDuring the early part of last week, the theme was buy risk and sell euro. Risk appetite was given a strong boost by global manufacturing data from China to UK to US. While Euro selling persisted, risk markets failed to extend rally even with a very solid employment report from US. Major stock indices did close the week up even though paring much of the earlier gains. Crude oil and gold both closed above key psychological level of 100 and 1600. The set back in risks looked corrective so far. We believe that markets have overshoot on the first day of the year and then consolidated. And traders are starting to be cautious ahead of the string of earning releases, starting from Alcoa on Monday, JP Morgan Chase on Friday and a bulk of S&P 500 companies in the weeks ahead. Hence, they're refusing to commit further yet. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Weekly OutlookEUR/AUD's down trend continued last week and dived to new record low of 1.2419. It's starting to lose some downside momentum with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. But after all, with 1.2545 minor resistance intact, initial bias will remain so the downside this week. Current fall should target 100% projection of 1.3808 to 1.2962 from 1.3150 at 1.2304 next. On the upside, above 1.2545 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But strong resistance should be seen at 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2651) to limit upside and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Report |
2012 Forecast: Euro to Remain Pressured as Sovereign Debt Crisis Drags Down Economy and Causes ECB to Accelerate EasingSovereign debt problems in the Eurozone will continue to dominate financial markets this year. While we believe European finance ministers will eventually resolve the crisis, the situation will probably worsen in the medium-term. The euro, which got hammered in 2011, will remain under pressure in months ahead. In our opinion, high risk premium regarding owning the single currency and ECB's monetary easing are key factors dragging on the currency. 2012 Forecast: USD to Strengthen Further in First Half of 2012The US dollar is expected to outperform other major currencies in the first half of 2012. The key reasons for the greenback's glitter are the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the relatively strong economic improvement in the US. It is, however, rather difficult to forecast the outlook of the US dollar in the second half of the year as uncertainties related to the pace of recovery in European economies, fiscal tightening in the US and the FED's implementation of QE3 heighten. Moreover, the ability for China to avoid hard landing would be another factor affect USD's outlook. |
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| Suggested Readings | ||
2012 Outlook
The Week in Review and Outlook | ||
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