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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Halted after Italy Auction, JPMorgan ChaseRisk rally takes a halt in early US session as earning results from JPMorgan Chase dragged US stock futures down. While the report was basically inline with analyst estimates, it did show trading and corporate deal-making business depressed by European debt crisis. Investors are also cautious ahead of the earning reports next week, which include Wells Fargo, American Express, IBM and Intel. Dollar is given a mild lift by risk aversion with dollar index back above 81 level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9388; (P) 0.9467; (R1) 0.9523; More... USD/CHF recovers mildly after hitting near term trendline support but recovery is so far weak. Pullback from 0.9594 could extend lower. Though, downside is expected to be contained well above 0.9304 support and bring another rise. Recent rally from 0.7065 is still expected to continue and above 0.9594 will target 0.9916 key resistance next. |
| Special Report |
Both ECB and BOE Stayed on the SidelineAt two consecutive months of rate reduction, the ECB decided to leave the main refinancing rate at 1% at the January meeting. Policymakers would like gauge the impacts of previous rate cuts and liquidity provisions on the economy. Meanwhile, President Draghi indicated the 3-year LTRO has benefited banks and supported confidence. This is by no means an end of the easing cycle. Indeed, the ECB will like lower interest rates further should economic conditions deteriorate. 2012 Forecast: Sterling Has Potential to Weaken Against EuroSimilar to the euro, the British pound will likely weaken against the US dollar amid risk aversion in the first half of the year. Against the euro, the pound had gained for 3 consecutive years since 2009 although the magnitude has been declining. In 2011, EURGBP has been on a down trend since the EU summit as pessimism that EU finance leaders would not be able to derive effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis has made sterling a safe-haven asset in the short-term. We do not expect this to continue this year as the UK has its own fiscal and economic problems to struggle. The disaster these might cause is not less than the debt problems in the17-nation region. An option to alleviate the economic problems would be monetary easing. Without the need of majority vote, the BOE may deliver more dovish stance on the monetary outlook than the ECB in 2012. This would then weaken the British pound. |
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency ran into heavy offers from Asian CBs at 1.2879 and dropped quite sharply in European session in part due to disappointing Italian debt auction (not too bad but not as good as Spanish auction), buy orders at 1.2820 were filled and some stops at 1.2800 were also triggered, however, mixtures of bids and stops are still noted at 1.2740-50 and further out at 1.2690-00 with sizeable stops placed below 1.2650 option barrier. On the upside, offers are now noted at 1.2820 and 1.2850 with stops building above 1.2880 and also 1.2900 (with offers ahead of both levels). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2940Although the single currency has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.2879 and the breach of the Kijun-Sen signals top is formed there, a drop below the lower Kumo (now at 1.2729) is needed to suggest the rebound from 1.2662 has ended, bring further fall to 1.2695-00 but reckon this week’s low at 1.2662 would remain intact, bring rebound later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Target met and stand asideAlthough yesterday’s anticipated rise to 1.0378 (our long position entered at 1.0175 met target at 1.0375 with 200 points profit) has justified our bullishness and near term upside bias remains for test of resistance at 1.0387, a sustained breach above this level is needed to signal the rise from 0.9664 to 1.0450-55 but reckon 1.0500 would hold from here, bring retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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