Friday, January 13, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-13-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Halted after Italy Auction, JPMorgan Chase

Risk rally takes a halt in early US session as earning results from JPMorgan Chase dragged US stock futures down. While the report was basically inline with analyst estimates, it did show trading and corporate deal-making business depressed by European debt crisis. Investors are also cautious ahead of the earning reports next week, which include Wells Fargo, American Express, IBM and Intel. Dollar is given a mild lift by risk aversion with dollar index back above 81 level.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9388; (P) 0.9467; (R1) 0.9523; More...

USD/CHF recovers mildly after hitting near term trendline support but recovery is so far weak. Pullback from 0.9594 could extend lower. Though, downside is expected to be contained well above 0.9304 support and bring another rise. Recent rally from 0.7065 is still expected to continue and above 0.9594 will target 0.9916 key resistance next.

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Special Report

Both ECB and BOE Stayed on the Sideline

At two consecutive months of rate reduction, the ECB decided to leave the main refinancing rate at 1% at the January meeting. Policymakers would like gauge the impacts of previous rate cuts and liquidity provisions on the economy. Meanwhile, President Draghi indicated the 3-year LTRO has benefited banks and supported confidence. This is by no means an end of the easing cycle. Indeed, the ECB will like lower interest rates further should economic conditions deteriorate.

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2012 Forecast: Sterling Has Potential to Weaken Against Euro

Similar to the euro, the British pound will likely weaken against the US dollar amid risk aversion in the first half of the year. Against the euro, the pound had gained for 3 consecutive years since 2009 although the magnitude has been declining. In 2011, EURGBP has been on a down trend since the EU summit as pessimism that EU finance leaders would not be able to derive effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis has made sterling a safe-haven asset in the short-term. We do not expect this to continue this year as the UK has its own fiscal and economic problems to struggle. The disaster these might cause is not less than the debt problems in the17-nation region. An option to alleviate the economic problems would be monetary easing. Without the need of majority vote, the BOE may deliver more dovish stance on the monetary outlook than the ECB in 2012. This would then weaken the British pound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Dec 3.10% 3.00% 3.00%
09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Dec -0.60% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Dec 8.70% 9.10% 13.40% 13.60%
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Dec -0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y dec 4.80% 5.00% 5.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Nov 6.1B 0.7B 0.3B
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Nov 1.1B -0.35B -0.89B
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec -0.10% -0.10% 0.70%
13:30 USD Trade Balance Nov -47.8B -44.6B -43.5B
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jan P 70.5 69.9
2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

USD index 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

Despite falling to as low as 72.70 in H1 2011, dollar index found good support there and staged a rebound from there back to the opening level of 2011, suggesting the major downtrend is not ready to resume yet and wave IV correction is still unfolding as a complex correction. We are keeping our preferred count that a major (A)-(B)-(C) wave has commenced since 1980s with (A) wave ended at 78.19 in 1992, followed by a 3-legged wave (B) ended at 121.02 in 2001 and 5-waver wave (C) is unfolding with wave III ended at 70.70 in 2008.

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Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency ran into heavy offers from Asian CBs at 1.2879 and dropped quite sharply in European session in part due to disappointing Italian debt auction (not too bad but not as good as Spanish auction), buy orders at 1.2820 were filled and some stops at 1.2800 were also triggered, however, mixtures of bids and stops are still noted at 1.2740-50 and further out at 1.2690-00 with sizeable stops placed below 1.2650 option barrier. On the upside, offers are now noted at 1.2820 and 1.2850 with stops building above 1.2880 and also 1.2900 (with offers ahead of both levels).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2940

Although the single currency has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.2879 and the breach of the Kijun-Sen signals top is formed there, a drop below the lower Kumo (now at 1.2729) is needed to suggest the rebound from 1.2662 has ended, bring further fall to 1.2695-00 but reckon this week’s low at 1.2662 would remain intact, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Target met and stand aside

Although yesterday’s anticipated rise to 1.0378 (our long position entered at 1.0175 met target at 1.0375 with 200 points profit) has justified our bullishness and near term upside bias remains for test of resistance at 1.0387, a sustained breach above this level is needed to signal the rise from 0.9664 to 1.0450-55 but reckon 1.0500 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

2012 Outlook

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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