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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Dollar Extends Post FOMC SelloffDollar's post FOMC decline extends further in Asia today with EUR/USD trading firm above 1.31 level. DOW managed to ride on Fed's intention to keep rates low until late 2014 and staged a strong rebound to close up 81pts. However, such optimism doesn't carry on to Asian markets as major indices are mixed with Nikkei down -48pts. But dollar's weakness is clearly felt in commodity markets with gold holding firm above 1700 while crude oil is also trading above 100 psychological level. The CRB commodity index also managed to break through January's high extend recent rebound. As noted before, dollar index's break of 79.51 support confirmed at least near term topping and more downside would likely be seen in the greenback ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0485; (P) 1.0552; (R1) 1.0663; More AUD/USD's rise from 0.9663 resumed by taking out 1.0573 and reaches as high as 1.0641 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0752 resistance next. As noted before, break there will be first signal of break out from recent consolidations and would target a test on 1.1079 key resistance. On the downside, below 1.0444 support, though, will suggests that rebound from 0.9663 might be finished. In that case, consolidation from 1.1079 high is still in progress and could have then started a falling leg back towards 1.0148 support and below. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Keeps Interests Low At Least Until Late 2014The Fed delivered a dovish policy statement in January, stating the Fed funds rate will stay at exceptionally low level “at least through late 2014”. There were two other notable changes made at the meeting. First, the Fed released interest rate projections of participants. Second, the central bank released a statement on its longer-run goals and strategy, indicating a 2% long-run target for the PCE deflator. The dovish tone of the statement and the press conference was a reflection of the highly uncertain global economic outlook which was supported by FOMC’s downward revision in growth forecast over the next three years. We retain the view that the Fed will implement QE3 in the second half of this year, after completion of operation twist. RBNZ Intends To Pause LongerAt the January meeting, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and signaled that the pause might be longer than previously anticipated. Despite the seemingly more dovish statement, policymakers saw some improvements in household spending and the housing market. Policymakers believed it’s prudent to keep the OCR on hold at 2.5% but the words “for now” were removed in the statement this time. This probably signals that interest rates will stay at current level longer than previously expected. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday's retreat to 1.2931, the single currency turned back higher on back of dollar's broad-based weakness as Fed decided to keep rates low until 2014, stops at 1.3070 and 1.3100 were triggered and offers are still noted from 1.3130 up to 1.3150 with more stops reported above 1.3150 option barrier but selling interests from U.S. names are tipped further out at 1.3160-65. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.3050-60 and also 1.3000 with stops building up below 1.2930 and 1.2900. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5725Despite yesterday’s brief retreat to 1.5531, the British pound found renewed buying interest just above the Ichimoku cloud bottom and cable has risen again on dollar’s broad-based weakness, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5715-25 and risk from there is seen for a retreat later. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5606) would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3190Although the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.2931 yesterday and recent rise from 1.2624 low may extend gain towards 1.3190-00, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and risk from there is seen for a retreat later today or tomorrow. Below previous resistance at 1.3063 would bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3033) but break there is needed to signal a temporary top is formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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