Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-18-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Rises Unconvincing on IMF Speculation, Fitch Comments

Markets are generally mixed today as consolidations continue. European majors are lifted mildly by talk that IMF is studying the options to boost its lending resources by $1T and is pushing China, Brazil, Russia, India, Japan and oil-exporting nations as the top contributors. But the strength of recovery is no impressive so far. Indeed. European stocks fail to sustain earlier gains and turns red in early US session while US equities are set to have mixed open. Commodity currencies are mildly lower against dollar as European/commodity crosses rebound. After all, firstly, there is no indication of change in trend yet and Euro remains vulnerable. Secondly, we'd anticipate more consolidative trading in near term.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2653; (P) 1.2731 (R1) 1.2812; More.

EUR/USD's recovery is so far still limited below 1.2878 minor resistances. Thus, near term outlook remains bearish. Below 1.2625 will extend recent decline to 100% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3145 from 1.4246 at 1.2452 next. However, above 1.2878 will indicate short term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring stronger rebound back above 1.3076 resistance.

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Special Report

BOC Extended the Longest Pause since Adoption of Overnight Rate

The BOC expectedly paused in January, keeping the overnight rate at 1% for an 11th consecutive meeting. While policymakers believed economic growth will be "more modest" than previously anticipated, they preferred to stand on the sideline for the time being as historically low interest rates and the well-functioning financial system have been providing stimulus to the economy. Yet, the central bank pledged to monitor the market situation carefully so that it could act swiftly with the aim of keeping inflation at the 2% target in the medium-term.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q4 0 25
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Nov -0.80% -0.40% 0.60% 0.70%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Dec 12.80% 12.30% 12.40%
02:00 CNY Real GDP Q/Y Q4 8.90% 8.70% 9.10%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 18.10% 17.30% 17.30%
09:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Nov -3.30% -0.20% -0.40%
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Dec 4.20% 4.20% 4.80%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Dec 3.00% 3.00% 3.20%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Dec 4.80% 4.70% 5.20%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan -21.6 -49.2 -53.8
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jan 28.4 24 26.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan -32.5 -48.7 -54.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec 2.70% 2.80% 3.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Dec 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Nov 14.99B 6.97B 2.03B 3.85B
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Jan 13.5 10.5 9.53
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

USD index 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

Despite falling to as low as 72.70 in H1 2011, dollar index found good support there and staged a rebound from there back to the opening level of 2011, suggesting the major downtrend is not ready to resume yet and wave IV correction is still unfolding as a complex correction. We are keeping our preferred count that a major (A)-(B)-(C) wave has commenced since 1980s with (A) wave ended at 78.19 in 1992, followed by a 3-legged wave (B) ended at 121.02 in 2001 and 5-waver wave (C) is unfolding with wave III ended at 70.70 in 2008.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5400

Cable’s intra-day rebound to 1.5388 suggests caution on our short position entered at 1.5400 and this resistance needs to hold to retain bearishness and bring another retreat to the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5322), however, a break of yesterday’s low at 1.5312 is needed to signal top is formed at 1.5405 and bring further fall to next support at 1.5273.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0235

Aussie finally penetrated indicated resistance at 1.0387 yesterday and rose to as high as 1.0450, however, the subsequent retreat from there suggests consolidation below this level would take place and pullback to 1.0290-00 would be seen, however, support at 1.0232 support (last Friday’s low) should limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 0.9664 towards 1.0490-00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

2012 Outlook

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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