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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Market Open Lower after S&P European Downgrades. French Auction WatchedAsian markets open broadly lower in reaction to S&P's downgrade of nine Eurozone states after Friday's close. Euro remains generally weak but the selloff is so far limited in Asia. The main reactions would likely be seen after European markets open and we'd anticipate deeper decline ahead in the day. There are talks that played down the significance of the downgrade as firstly it's widely expected for some time. Secondly, France was just downgraded by one-notch, which isn't the worst scenario. Nonetheless, markets are worried on the potential impact of the downgrades, including reduction of lending capacity of the EFSF. Also, there could be revisions to EFSF, corporate and domestics banks that would accelerate deleveraging in the markets, which might accelerate the position squaring in euro and risk markets. After all, there is no scope for a sustainable rebound in the common currency yet. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 96.89; (P) 97.84; (R1) 98.50; More Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 111.57 is expected to continue 61.8% projection of 102.53 to 97.27 from 98.80 at 95.54 next. On the upside, break of 98.80 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Report |
2012 Forecast: Sterling Has Potential to Weaken Against EuroSimilar to the euro, the British pound will likely weaken against the US dollar amid risk aversion in the first half of the year. Against the euro, the pound had gained for 3 consecutive years since 2009 although the magnitude has been declining. In 2011, EURGBP has been on a down trend since the EU summit as pessimism that EU finance leaders would not be able to derive effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis has made sterling a safe-haven asset in the short-term. We do not expect this to continue this year as the UK has its own fiscal and economic problems to struggle. The disaster these might cause is not less than the debt problems in the17-nation region. An option to alleviate the economic problems would be monetary easing. Without the need of majority vote, the BOE may deliver more dovish stance on the monetary outlook than the ECB in 2012. This would then weaken the British pound. |
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained under pressure after Friday's selloff caused by heavy selling by Asian CBs, stops below 1.2650-60 were triggered and more stops are placed below option barrier at 1.2600 and 1.2580 but some bids are reported from 1.2570 down to 1.2550 (where another barrier is located). Talk of possible downgrade of EFSF should continue to put pressure on euro and offers are noted at 1.2690-00 and further out at 1.2750 with some stops seen above latter level and also further out at 1.2800-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5400Despite Friday’s resumption of decline to 1.5234, the subsequent quick rebound formed a hammer candlestick near term bullish reversal pattern, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5383) cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon previous resistance at 1.5410 would limit upside and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2760Friday’s selloff from 1.2879 and the breach of support at 1.2662 confirm recent downtrend has once again resumed and further weakness to 1.2620 and possibly 1.2600 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and reckon 1.2540-50 would hold from here, bring a correction later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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