Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-31-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Continues into US Session, Dollar Soft

The risk-on sentiments in financial markets continue as we're entering into US session. European equity indices are broadly higher after EU leaders agreed on the so called fiscal compact. Also, investors seem to be optimistic that Greek PSI situation would be resolved soon. US futures also point to higher opens. Dollar is seen broadly lower following risk appetite with dollar index back below 79 level. Sterling and Canadian dollar took out recent resistance against the greenback but Euro and Aussie, despite to rebound, is held in near term range. Italian and Spanish yields are both lower as bonds rebound. However, Portugal yields are hovering near record high, including two-year, five-year and 10-year bonds. There are continuous talk of second bailout for Portugal. Prime Minister Coelho tried to convince markets that "Portugal's debt is perfectly sustainable" and will be no second bailout nor Greek style hair cut on debts.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5664; (P) 1.5699; (R1) 1.5744; More.

GBP/USD's rise from 1.5234 resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 1.5795 so far today. The break of 1.5779 resistance is taken as the first signal that whole decline from 1.6746 is completed at 1.5234. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and further rally should be seen to 1.6165 key cluster resistance for confirmation (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168. On the downside, break of 1.5641 support is needed to signal short term bottoming. Or we'll stay cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

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Special Reports

2012 Forecast: AUD Boosted By Speculations Over Fed's QE3 In The Near-Term

The dovish January FOMC statement thrilled investors and boosted higher-yield currencies. Australian dollar was one of the beneficiaries. AUD soared against USD after the Fed pushed back the first expected rate hike to late-2014, from mid-2013 as projected in previous statements. Moreover, renewed speculations on QE3 have boosted AUD as well as other cyclical currencies. Australian dollar is expected to rise further in the near-term amid rising likelihood of monetary easing. In the medium- term, AUD will likely trade sub-parity against the USD but upside risks remain there for the commodity currency and any accommodative policy from China should help push the currency higher.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Dec 2.10% 8.00% -6.40% -6.20%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jan 50.7 50.2
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Dec 0.50% -0.10% -3.20%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Dec 4.60% 4.50% 4.50%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Dec P 4.00% 2.90% -2.70%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Dec P -4.10% -5.00% -4.20%
00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Jan -29 -32 -33
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Dec 3 2
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Dec -7.30% -1.50% -0.30%
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Dec -1.40% 0.80% -0.90% -1.00%
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Dec 0.92 0.81 0.78
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jan -34K -5K -22K -25K
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jan 6.70% 6.80% 6.80%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Dec 53.0K 54.0K 52.9K
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Dec -1.40% 0.30% -0.60%
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Dec -2.50% -2.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec 10.40% 10.40% 10.30% 10.40%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Nov -0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Dec -0.70% 0.10% 0.20%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Dec -2.40% 0.20% 3.80%
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q/Q Q4 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Nov -3.20% -3.40%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Jan 63 62.2
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jan 68 64.5
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound moved higher again and cleared stops above 1.5775-80 to a fresh 9-week high of 1.5797 in London, however, offers from Middle East and Eastern European names are reported from 1.5800 all the way up to 1.5850 (for profit-taking purposes) with more stops seen above 1.5850-60. On the downside, some bids (in fair size only) are reported at 1.5740-50 and also at 1.5700 with stops building up below latter level and also 1.5680, followed by mixture of bids and stops located at 1.5630-40.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9140

Despite yesterday’s rebound to 0.9210, the subsequent retreat suggests caution on our long position entered at 0.9140 and yesterday’s low at 0.9112 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, a sustained breach of said resistance would add credence to our view that a temporary low is possibly formed and bring retracement of recent fall to previous resistance at 0.9228, above there would confirm

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0500

Although aussie has rebounded after falling to 1.0526 yesterday, above resistance at 1.0688 is needed to confirm recent c leg rise is still in progress and extend gain to 1.0700, then to previous resistance at 1.0753 (a leg top) but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0800 and risk from there has increased for a strong pullback later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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