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Daily Report: Yen Selloff Extends after Recording First Annual Trade Deficit in Since 1980The Japanese Yen's sell off continues today after the country unexpectedly reported deficit of JPY -0.57T in December. More importantly, Japan posted its first annual trade deficit since 1980, that is, over 30 years. In 2011, deficit was at JPY 2.49T after 2.7% decline in export to JPY 65.55T. On the other hand, import surged 12.0%. That's a result of yen's strength which erode Japan's export competitiveness. BoJ governor Shirakawa said yesterday that trade deficit is not a pattern and he doesn't expect current account balance to turn to deficit in the near future. However, there are some concerns that the current account balance would eventually turn into deficit should trade deficit continues to widen on slowing global demand and strong competition. Some economists expect that to happen at around 2016/17. And when that happens, Japan would no longer be able to pay the cost of it's public debt. |
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USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.13; (P) 77.49; (R1) 78.03; More... USD/JPY's rally extends further to 77.97 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 78.28 resistance. Break there will confirm that correction from 79.52 is finished with three waves down to 76.55. In such case, whole rebound from 75.56 is likely resuming for 79.52 and above. On the downside, 77.96 minor support will turn bias neutral first and bring retreat. But we'll stay cautiously bullish as long as 77.33 resistance turned support holds. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2935Euro’s firmness after yesterday’s rise to 1.3063 signals recent upmove from 1.2624 low is still in progress and further gain to 1.3095-00 would be seen, however, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp rise beyond 1.3130-35 and reckon 1.3160-65 (100% projection of 1.2854-1.3063 measuring from 1.2954) would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a correction to take place later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.35As the greenback has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 76.87 and the subsequent breach of indicated resistance at 77.34 confirm low has been formed at 76.55 earlier, bullishness remains for another leg of correction to take place, bring test of next resistance at 78.29, however, above this level is needed to retain bullishness and extend gain towards 78.55-60 but reckon minor resistance at 79.10 would hold from here, bring retreat due to near term overbought condition. USD/JPY – 77.92 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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