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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Euro Pares Gain on Profit Taking, Awaiting Greece TalksEuropean major currencies and stock indices retreat sharply today and traders lighten of positions on profit-taking, ahead of weekend. Greece enters into the third day of discussion with private creditors on the so-called debt swap deal that's essential to help the country get through the important March 20 bond resumption date. There is some optimism that Greece and private sector would finally agree this week but this is far from guaranteed. And Euro's corrective rebound could quickly reverse should Greece disappoints the market again. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 99.00; (P) 99.52; (R1) 100.51; More EUR/JPY rises to as high as 100.33 earlier today and touched mentioned target of 38.2% retracement of 105.54 to 97.03 at 100.28 before retreating mildly. With 98.54 minor support intact, rebound from 97.03 short term bottom could extend further higher to 101.04 support turned resistance. But still, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 102.48 support turned resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 98.54 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 97.03 low. |
| Special Report |
China Watch: Shift To Monetary Easing Should Support Chinese Growth In 2012The Chinese economy grew +8.9% y/y in 4Q11, down from +9.1% in the prior quarter. Despite the slowdown, the result beat consensus and brought relief to those who worried that growth would have slipped below 8%. Expansion in the fourth quarter was driven by surge in industrial production and retail sales. For full year 2011, GDP growth reached +9.2%, in line with market expectations. The question now comes to how the world's second largest economy would perform in 2012 given external headwinds and domestic slowdown. In our opinion, a soft landing is a likely scenario and the chance of sub-8% growth is quite low as policy easing by the government helps limit the downside risks to growth. We expect GDP will grow by mid-8% in 2012. |
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.2986, the single currency ran into heavy offers from Asian CBs and has retreated in part due to profit-taking ahead of weekend (long weekend for certain centers due to Chinese New Year), bids in the region of 1.2900-30 were filled and stops below 1.2860 are in focus but more buying interest from various parties is likely to emerge further out at 1.2840-50 with next stops placed below 1.2830 and 1.2800 (large). On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2930-40 and also at 1.2980-90 with mixture of offers and stops located at 1.3000-10 (option barrier). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9450As the greenback has staged a sharp rebound after intra-day brief fall to 0.9306, suggesting a minor low is formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 0.9401-07 (yesterday’s high and previous support), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.9441-49(current level of the upper Kumo and previous support), bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 98.55Yesterday’s rally adds credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 97.04 and although price has retreated from 100.33, downside should be limited to 99.00 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 98.50/55, bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would bring retracement of recent downtrend to 100.75-80 and then 101.05 (previous support) which is likely to hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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