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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Euro Rebound Continues, More Upside in Near TermEuro extends this week's broad based rally today and continues to head towards 1.3 against dollar and 100 against yen. Solid bond longer bond auctions yesterday removed the worry on downgrade impact on investor confidence, as least temporarily. Also, markets are hopeful that Greek PSI deal could be reached soon within the week. Short-covering rebound in EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD also gives the recovery added fuel. We'd likely see more upside in European majors in near term, even though, the large down trend is still intact. Current rebound is so far still treated as opportunity to reestablish short position in European majors for the next fall. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2880; (P) 1.2926 (R1) 1.3013; More. As noted before, a short term bottom in EUR/USD is formed at 1.2625 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rebound to 1.3076 resistance and above. Though, we'd expect strong resistance at 38.2% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3244 to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2838 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2625 low first. |
| Special Report |
China Watch: Shift To Monetary Easing Should Support Chinese Growth In 2012The Chinese economy grew +8.9% y/y in 4Q11, down from +9.1% in the prior quarter. Despite the slowdown, the result beat consensus and brought relief to those who worried that growth would have slipped below 8%. Expansion in the fourth quarter was driven by surge in industrial production and retail sales. For full year 2011, GDP growth reached +9.2%, in line with market expectations. The question now comes to how the world's second largest economy would perform in 2012 given external headwinds and domestic slowdown. In our opinion, a soft landing is a likely scenario and the chance of sub-8% growth is quite low as policy easing by the government helps limit the downside risks to growth. We expect GDP will grow by mid-8% in 2012. |
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has continued to move higher on improved risk appetite and indicated stops at 1.2930 and 1.2960-70 were triggered, however, offers from Asian CBs, Russian names and real money accounts are still noted at 1.2980-90 with more stops placed above 1.3000 and 1.3050 option barriers. On the downside, bids from U.S. funds and European names are lined up from 1.2930 down to 1.2900 with some stops seen at 1.2860-70, followed by combinations of bids and stops at 1.2830 and further out at 1.2800-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5400Cable’s firmness after breaking previous resistance at 1.5410 (now turned into support) suggests bullishness remains for near term rise from 1.5234 temporary low to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.5500-05 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5672-1.5234) and possibly to 1.5530-35 (1.236 times projection of 1.5234-1.5405 measuring from 1.5321) Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2850Euro’s firmness after yesterday’s rally above previous resistance at 1.2879 signals the rise from temporary low at 1.2624 is still in progress and bullishness remains for a stronger retracement of recent decline towards psychological resistance at 1.3000, however, overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3013 (1.618 times projection of 1.2624-1.2810 measuring from 1.2712) and reckon 1.3050-60 would hold Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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