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Mid-Day Report: Euro Back Pressured after CPI, German AuctionEuro's recovery lost steam and weakens today after data showed inflation eased in December. European Union statistics office's CPI flash estimate moderated from 3.0% to 2.8%. The data prompted some speculation that easing inflation would give ECB rooms for rate cut even though the benchmark rate is already back to record low of 1% after two rate cuts last year. Some analysts are forecasting that inflation would drop below ECB's target of 2% by mid-2012 should oil does not rise again. However, that's a big "if" considering that WTI crude oil is staying firm above 100 level for the moment and is building up momentum for a test on recent high near to 115. Meanwhile, some argued that ECB could cut again in first half and the benchmark rate could reach as low as 0.5%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2963; (P) 1.3019 (R1) 1.3108; More. EUR/USD's recovery was limited at 1.3076, below near term falling channel resistance and weakens sharply today. Focus is back on 1.2917 minor support. Break will flip bias to the downside to extend recent fall and target 100% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3145 from 1.4246 at 1.2452 next. On the upside, above 1.3076 will bring another recovery but upside is expected to be limited by 1.3197 resistance, which is close to 50% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.2857, and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Report |
2012 Forecast: USD to Strengthen Further in First Half of 2012The US dollar is expected to outperform other major currencies in the first half of 2012. The key reasons for the greenback's glitter are the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the relatively strong economic improvement in the US. It is, however, rather difficult to forecast the outlook of the US dollar in the second half of the year as uncertainties related to the pace of recovery in European economies, fiscal tightening in the US and the FED's implementation of QE3 heighten. Moreover, the ability for China to avoid hard landing would be another factor affect USD's outlook. Fed Strives to Improve Transparency this YearThe FOMC minutes for the December meeting suggested the Fed will focus on communication strategy at meetings this year. Members agreed to include their “projections of appropriate monetary policy” into the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) beginning in January. The SEP will also unveil “participants' current projections of the likely timing of the first increase in the target rate” given their projections of future economic conditions. Moreover, there will be “qualitative information regarding participants' expectations for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet” and introduction of a more formal inflation-targeting framework. |
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: When most European players returned from holidays, they found level above 1.3050 a good price to sell as they are keeping their bearish view on the single currency, the pair tumbled in European morning and bids at 1.3000 and 1.2970 were all cleared, however, bids are still noted at 1.2910-20 with stops building up below 1.2900 and further out at 1.2850. On the upside, offers from European names are now reported at 1.3000 and also 1.3040-50 with mixture of offers and stops located further out at 1.3070-80. Large 1.3000 and 1.3110 options are going to expire today in New York cut. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Target met and buy again at 0.9365Current anticipated rally (our long position entered at 0.9315 met target at 0.9415 with 100 points profit) has justified our bullish view that low has been formed at 0.9305 and bullishness remains for a test of previous minor resistance at 0.9425 but a sustained breach above there is needed to retain bullishness and extend gain towards previous resistance at 0.9470 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0175Although yesterday’s breach of 1.0382 confirms our view that the 0.9667 is still in progress and further gain to 1.0400 would be seen, as price has eased from 1.0387, minor consolidation would take place and pullback to 1.0290-00 is likely, below there would bring correction to 1.0200-10, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.0175-80 and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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