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Daily Report: Risk Retreats ahead of EU SummitRisk appetite retreats mildly as the week starts in response to Fitch's downgrade of some Eurozone countries and as traders await the first EU summit in 2012 in Brussels. EU leaders are expected to sign off the permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism or ESM, today. The EUR 500b permanent will become operational in July, a year ahead of originally planned, replacing the temporary European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF. European leaders are also expected to discuss and possibly agree on the terms of the so called fiscal compact, which would tightening budget rules. The principles of the fiscal compact were agreed back in December but UK refused to participate. The current unused funds from EUR's 2007-2013 budget, at around EUR 20b, would also be redirected to revive the job markets. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0604; (P) 1.0636; (R1) 1.0681; More Intraday bias in AUD/USD is neutral for the moment and some consolidations could be seen below 1.0687 temporary top. But near term outlook remains cautiously bullish with 1.0444 support intact and recent rise is still expected to continue to 1.0752 resistance. As discussed before, break there will be the first sign of up trend resumption and should target a test on 1.1079 high. However, note that AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.9387/1.1079. Break of 1.0444 support will argue that rebound from 0.96662 is finished and another falling leg inside the consolidation pattern could have started for the lower side of the range. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchCHF: Despite falling to a fresh 8-week low of 0.9112 this morning in Australia, the greenback finally rebounded from there on short-covering, however, offers from European names are still noted at 0.9190-00 and also at 0.9230-35 with stops building up above 0.9250-55 but larger sell orders are tipped further out at 0.9300-10 and 0.9340-50. On the downside, bids are noted at 0.9135-40 and also 0.9100-10 with more buying interest from model funds tipped at 0.9080-85 and 0.9050. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3210Despite intra-day initial brief rise to 1.3233, as the single currency has retreated from there, retaining our near term bearish view for retracement of recent upmove and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement of recent rise to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3115), then 1.3100, however, reckon support at 1.3077 (Friday’s low) would limit downside and the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3058) would hold Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.05As dollar has remained under pressure after breaking indicated support at 76.87 last Friday, suggesting caution on our near term bullishness and 76.65 needs to hold for prospect of another rebound later, above the Kijun-Sen (now at 76.91) would suggest an intra-day low is possibly formed but break of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 77.27) is needed to confirm and bring stronger rebound towards the upper Kumo (now at 77.59) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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