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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.3, EUR/JPY Targeting 100 after Successful France and Spain Bond AuctionsEuro is lifted by successful bond auctions in France and Spain today. Recent recovery in common currency extends further with EUR/USD trading above 1.29 while EUR/JPY is also back above 99 level. Both are set to test 1.3 and 100 psychological level respectively. France successfully sold EUR 7.965b of 2014, 2015 and 2016 bonds today, near to maximum target of EUR 8b. Demand was solid with bid-to-cover ratio of 2014 bond at 2.12, 2015 bond at 3.42 and 2016 bond at 2.12. Yields were at 1.05%, 1.5% and 1.89% respectively, and were lower from similar auction last year. The results suggested that investor confidence towards France was not much affected by S&P's downgrade last week. Spain's bond auction was also seen as successful. Spain sold EUR 6.61b of 2016, 2019, 2022 bonds today, much more than it's target of EUR 4.5b. Yield on benchmark 2022 bond was at 5.403%, significantly lower than the 6.975% in last auction in November. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 98.03; (P) 98.46; (R1) 99.23; More EUR/JPY rises further to as high as 99.25 in early US session. As noted before a short term bottom is formed at 97.03 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 105.54 to 97.03 at 100.28. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 102.48 support turned resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 98.32 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 97.03 low. |
| Special Report |
China Watch: Shift To Monetary Easing Should Support Chinese Growth In 2012The Chinese economy grew +8.9% y/y in 4Q11, down from +9.1% in the prior quarter. Despite the slowdown, the result beat consensus and brought relief to those who worried that growth would have slipped below 8%. Expansion in the fourth quarter was driven by surge in industrial production and retail sales. For full year 2011, GDP growth reached +9.2%, in line with market expectations. The question now comes to how the world's second largest economy would perform in 2012 given external headwinds and domestic slowdown. In our opinion, a soft landing is a likely scenario and the chance of sub-8% growth is quite low as policy easing by the government helps limit the downside risks to growth. We expect GDP will grow by mid-8% in 2012. |
| Economic Indicators Update | Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has continued to move higher throughout this week in part due to good results from bond auctions in Spain and Italy, stops above 1.2880 and 1.2900 were triggered, German bank and sovereign names were seen buying the pair (also in EUR/GBP), however, offers from Asian CBs, Eastern European names and real money accounts are still noted at 1.2930-40 with stops building up above option barrier at 1.2950, more selling interests form same parties are tipped further out at 1.2980-90 with another barrier located at 1.3000. On the downside, bids are lined up from 1.2870 down to 1.2840 with stops tipped below 1.2830 and 1.2800-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5360As cable has continued to traded with a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 1.5410, suggesting bullishness remains for near term rise from 1.5234 temporary low to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.5500-05 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5672-1.5234), however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.5540-50 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0235As aussie retreated after rising to 1.0450, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0300 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around support at 1.0232 (last Friday’s low), bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.0450 would extend the rise from 0.9664 towards 1.0490-00 but reckon 1.0550 would hold from here, bring retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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