Monday, January 16, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-16-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers Mildly as ECB Buy Bonds, Moody's Affirmed France Rating

Euro recovers mildly today after ECB bought Spain and Italy bonds to stabilize market sentiments after last week's S&P downgrades. Meanwhile, France also got a small boost from Moody's as the rating agency affirmed its AAA rating and stable outlook. Nonetheless, Moody's warned that France may face a "number of challenges in the coming months" including support to other European states and its own banking system. There could be "significant new liabilities" for the government's balance sheet. Also, "domestic and external economic growth outlook presents significant risks to the French government’s fiscal consolidation plans.” The France government targets to lower deficit ratio to 3% of GDP in 2013 and to achieve a balanced budget by 2016.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5232; (P) 1.5320; (R1) 1.5407; More.

A temporary low is in place in GBP/USD at 1.5234 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidation might be seen first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5500 minor resistance holds. Recent decline is expected to resume sooner or later. Below 1.5234 will target 100% projection of 1.6618 to 1.5271 from 1.6165 at 1.4818 next. Nonetheless, break of 1.5500 will indicate short term bottoming, possibly with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound back towards 1.5773 resistance.

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Special Report

2012 Forecast: Sterling Has Potential to Weaken Against Euro

Similar to the euro, the British pound will likely weaken against the US dollar amid risk aversion in the first half of the year. Against the euro, the pound had gained for 3 consecutive years since 2009 although the magnitude has been declining. In 2011, EURGBP has been on a down trend since the EU summit as pessimism that EU finance leaders would not be able to derive effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis has made sterling a safe-haven asset in the short-term. We do not expect this to continue this year as the UK has its own fiscal and economic problems to struggle. The disaster these might cause is not less than the debt problems in the17-nation region. An option to alleviate the economic problems would be monetary easing. Without the need of majority vote, the BOE may deliver more dovish stance on the monetary outlook than the ECB in 2012. This would then weaken the British pound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Nov 14.80% 5.10% -6.90%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Dec 1.30% 1.20% 1.70% 1.60%
0:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jan -0.80% -2.70%
0:30 AUD Home Loans Nov 1.40% 1.00% 0.70% 0.80%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Dec 0.30% -0.10% -0.80%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Dec -2.30% -2.80% -2.40%
2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

USD index 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

Despite falling to as low as 72.70 in H1 2011, dollar index found good support there and staged a rebound from there back to the opening level of 2011, suggesting the major downtrend is not ready to resume yet and wave IV correction is still unfolding as a complex correction. We are keeping our preferred count that a major (A)-(B)-(C) wave has commenced since 1980s with (A) wave ended at 78.19 in 1992, followed by a 3-legged wave (B) ended at 121.02 in 2001 and 5-waver wave (C) is unfolding with wave III ended at 70.70 in 2008.

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Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency recovered in part due to talk of ECB buying Spanish and Italian bond buying, offers from various parties in the region of 1.2680-1.2700 are still capping euro's upside so far with stops seen above 1.2725-30 but more selling interests from U.S. investment houses are located further out at 1.2770 and 1.2800. On the downside, bids from Middle East names and Eastern European accounts are lined up from 1.2625 down to 1.2600 (option barrier), more stops are placed below there and also next barrier at 1.2550.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9470

Although dollar’s strong rebound from Friday’s low of 0.9407 and the subsequent breach of previous resistance at 0.9567 add credence to our view that correction from 0.9595 has ended at 0.9407 and bullishness remains for a test of recent high of 0.9595, above there is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 0.9630 and possibly towards 0.9650-60

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0200

Despite last week’s anticipated rise to 1.0378, the subsequent retreat after failing to penetrate resistance at 1.0387 suggest consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0200-10 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon support at 1.0145 would hold form here and bring another rebound later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 1.0387 is needed to signal the rise from 0.9664 has resumed and extend further headway to 1.0450-55

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

2012 Outlook

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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