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Daily Report: Dollar Mildly Lower as Risk Recovered after EU SummitDollar is back under some pressure as risk markets recovered from Monday's selloff. DOW staged an impressive rebound from intraday low of 12529 to close at 12653, just down -0.05%. Asian indices are seen generally higher as markets find some bids. After the EU summit, 25 of 27 EU countries agreed to the so called fiscal compact. Only UK and Czech Republic, which are not Eurozone states, refused to sign the compact in March. ECB President hailed the agree as the first step towards a "fiscal union" and will "strengthen confidence in the Euro area". Also, EU leaders agreed that the EUR 500b permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism will be operational in July, a year ahead of planned. However, the issue on raising the ESM/EFSF ceiling was not discussed until the next summit in March. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 76.10; (P) 76.44; (R1) 76.66; More.... USD/JPY dropped to as low as 76.17 so far today and the break of 76.55 resistance confirmed resumption of whole decline from 79.52. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen towards 75.56 low. On the upside, above 76.42 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But we'll stay bearish as long as 78.28 resistance holds and expect further downside ahead. |
| Special Reports |
2012 Forecast: AUD Boosted By Speculations Over Fed's QE3 In The Near-TermThe dovish January FOMC statement thrilled investors and boosted higher-yield currencies. Australian dollar was one of the beneficiaries. AUD soared against USD after the Fed pushed back the first expected rate hike to late-2014, from mid-2013 as projected in previous statements. Moreover, renewed speculations on QE3 have boosted AUD as well as other cyclical currencies. Australian dollar is expected to rise further in the near-term amid rising likelihood of monetary easing. In the medium- term, AUD will likely trade sub-parity against the USD but upside risks remain there for the commodity currency and any accommodative policy from China should help push the currency higher. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to 1.3077 yesterday, decent demand emerged at this same level again and euro has staged a strong rebound as Greek Prime Minister Papademos said the country has made significant progress in the PSI talks and stops at 1.3175-85 were triggered, however, offers are still noted from 1.3200 up to 1.3230 with some stops seen above 1.3235 but more option defensive offers are expected ahead of 1.3250 and 1.3300 option barriers. On the downside, some bids are reported at 1.3130 and 1.3100-10 with mixture of bids and stops seen around 1.3070-80 and more stops are placed below 1.3050. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9140Despite yesterday’s rebound to 0.9210, the subsequent retreat suggests caution on our long position entered at 0.9140 and yesterday’s low at 0.9112 needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, a sustained breach of said resistance would add credence to our view that a temporary low is possibly formed and bring retracement of recent fall to previous resistance at 0.9228, above there would confirm Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3180Aussie’s retreat after last week’s rise to 1.0688 adds credence to our view that consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0500 is likely, however, still reckon renewed buying interest would emerge around 1.0450 and bring another rally later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove in c leg for further gain to 1.0700-10, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0753 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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