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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Aussie Jumps on Risk Appetite and Housing DataAussie rebounds strongly in Asia today following rebound in risk markets as well as positive housing data. Asian stocks are somewhat lifted by earnings report of Aloca. The company's outlook is seen as a bellwether of economic growth because of aluminium's important role in manufacturing. The company posted a Q4 loss due to sharp decline in aluminium prices but revenue beat expectations. It also posted a positive outlook in demand, expecting 7% growth this year. Asian equities are broadly higher with Nikkei up more than 30 pts at the time of writing. Aussie is further boosted by building approvals data, which rose 8.4% mom in November. EUR/AUD dives to new record low. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2425; (P) 1.2465; (R1) 1.2506; More. EUR/AUD's fall resumes after brief consolidation and makes new record low of 1.2392 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 1.3808 to 1.2962 from 1.3150 at 1.2304 next. On the upside, break of 1.2504 minor resistance will indicates short term bottoming and bring rebound. |
| Special Report |
2012 Forecast: Sterling Has Potential to Weaken Against EuroSimilar to the euro, the British pound will likely weaken against the US dollar amid risk aversion in the first half of the year. Against the euro, the pound had gained for 3 consecutive years since 2009 although the magnitude has been declining. In 2011, EURGBP has been on a down trend since the EU summit as pessimism that EU finance leaders would not be able to derive effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis has made sterling a safe-haven asset in the short-term. We do not expect this to continue this year as the UK has its own fiscal and economic problems to struggle. The disaster these might cause is not less than the debt problems in the17-nation region. An option to alleviate the economic problems would be monetary easing. Without the need of majority vote, the BOE may deliver more dovish stance on the monetary outlook than the ECB in 2012. This would then weaken the British pound. 2012 Forecast: USDJPY To Move SidewaysWe expect the movement of Japanese yen this year will be directed by factors including BOJ’s intervention, risk appetite and Fed’s QE3. Optimism of FOMC policymakers and the fiscal situation in the US will exert downward pressure on USD/JPY in the first half of the year but the BOJ will likely defend the level of 75 via intervention. Upside of the currency pair will also be capped by sluggish US economic growth and probable implementation of Fed’s QE3 later in the year. In this case, USD/JPY will likely be range-bounded this year. |
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| 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rebounded again since New York session and this morning in Asian trading in part due to the firmness in AUD and NZD, although Merkozy meeting did not provide any promising results, mixture of offers and stops at 1.2810-20 is in focus but more selling interests are expected to emerge around 1.2850-60 and further out at 1.2900 (sizeable). On the downside, bids are lined up from 1.2760 down to 1.2720 with some stops building up below 1.2720 and 1.2700, combination of bids and stops remains at 1.2650-60. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.9480Although the greenback has fallen again in part due to weakness in EUR/CHF, as long as indicated previous resistance at 0.9450 holds, mild upside bias remains for another rebound and break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9510) would suggest low is possibly formed and bring test of minor resistance at 0.9540-45 but only a sustained breach of the upper Kumo (now at 0.9561) would confirm Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5560Although the British pound has continued to move higher after rebounding from 1.5376 and a stronger retracement of the decline from 1.5672 may bring further gain to 1.5524-26 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5672-1.5376 and previous resistance), reckon 1.5555-60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would limit upside and bring another decline later. A sustained breach below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5432) would suggest top is possibly formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2012 Outlook
Fundamental Highlights
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