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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Euro Retreats on Greece, Yen SurgesEuro pares some gains ahead of weekend as Greece and private sectors are still struggling to conclude a plan for the debt swap arrangement. IIF Chief Dallara said there was "some progress" after a two-hour meeting with Greek Prime Minister Papademos yesterday and work will continue today. Focus of yesterday and today was on legal and technical issues and the officials are aiming at completing the deal soon. It's believed that the major obstacle, the coupon, rate is "parked" for the moment and the group will finish details of the overall package first. It's also reported that ECB, despite its opposition, would be included in the deal to some extent. Greece is still targeting to submit its formal offer for the bond-swap deal by February 13, so as to meet the March 20 bond redemption deadline. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 101.22; (P) 101.71; (R1) 102.01; More EUR/JPY's break of 100.97 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place at 102.20 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 100.18). Rebound from 97.03 is treated as a correction in the whole fall from 123.31. As long as 99.13 minor support holds, such rebound could extend and above 100.97 will target falling trend line resistance (now at 106.50). Nonetheless, break of 99.13 will indicate completion of such rebound and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 97.03 low instead. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Keeps Interests Low At Least Until Late 2014The Fed delivered a dovish policy statement in January, stating the Fed funds rate will stay at exceptionally low level “at least through late 2014”. There were two other notable changes made at the meeting. First, the Fed released interest rate projections of participants. Second, the central bank released a statement on its longer-run goals and strategy, indicating a 2% long-run target for the PCE deflator. The dovish tone of the statement and the press conference was a reflection of the highly uncertain global economic outlook which was supported by FOMC’s downward revision in growth forecast over the next three years. We retain the view that the Fed will implement QE3 in the second half of this year, after completion of operation twist. RBNZ Intends To Pause LongerAt the January meeting, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and signaled that the pause might be longer than previously anticipated. Despite the seemingly more dovish statement, policymakers saw some improvements in household spending and the housing market. Policymakers believed it’s prudent to keep the OCR on hold at 2.5% but the words “for now” were removed in the statement this time. This probably signals that interest rates will stay at current level longer than previously expected. |
| Economic Indicators Update | Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rallied to as high as 1.3184 on active buying by Middle East names, the currency pair ran into good offers there and has retreated in late New York, bids at 1.3135 and 1.3100 were absorbed but more buying interests from same parties are line up from 1.3070 down to 1.3030, option related bids in very good size are reported further out at 1.2990-00, 1.2950 and 1.2930 with stops building up below 1.2920-30. On the upside, some offers are noted at 1.3150 and selling interest remains in the region of 1.3180-1.3200 with stops in good size placed above 1.3200 and 1.3250 option barriers. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9310As the greenback has rebounded after falling to an 8-week low of 0.9157 yesterday, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9246) and possibly the upper Kumo (now at 0.9272), however, renewed selling interest should emerge below 0.9315-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9575-0.9157) and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.05Despite intra-day selloff to 76.90, still reckon support at 76.87 would limit downside and further consolidation with mild upside bias remains for another rebound later, above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 77.63) would suggest the retreat from 78.29 has ended and bring test of the upper Kumo (now at 77.82). Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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