Monday, January 16, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 1-17-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Appetite Lifted by China GDP, EFSF Downgrade Ignored

Risk appetite recovers in Asia following stronger than expected economic data from China. Q4 GDP slowed to 8.9% yoy, the weakest in 2.5 years. However, that was better than market consensus of 8.7% yoy. The moderation in GDP growth supports further easing from China while the data also suggested that hard landing is unlikely. Other data from China were also solid with industrial production rose 12.8% yoy in December while retail sales rose 18.1% yoy. Asian equities are broadly higher following the news with Nikkei up over 60 pts, HK HSI up over 300 pts while Shanghai composite up 20pts at the time of writing. Aussie is the strongest currency on China data as usual with AUD/USD breaching 1.0385 resistance to resume recent rally while EUR/AUD dives to new record low.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0266; (P) 1.0301; (R1) 1.0349; More

AUD/USD jumps to as high as 1.0397 so far today and the break of 1.0385 indicates resumption of rise from 0.9806. Intraday bias is back on the upside for upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0466). Break will target 100% projection of 0.9663 to 1.0377 from 0.9860 at 1.0574. On the downside, though, below 1.0226 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.0148 and below. After all, note that AUD/USD is still bounded inside converging range since 1.1079 and more choppy sideway trading could be seen before an eventual upside breakout.

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Special Report

BOC To Leave Policy Rate At 1%

The BOC is expected to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 1% in January. While both external economic headwinds and domestic problems are posing threats to Canada's economic outlook, recent encouraging macroeconomic data from the US should help the BOC buy time in assessing the big picture before making a decision. It's likely that the central will leave the monetary policy as it is for the rest of the year. Should the Fed announce in coming meetings that interest rates will stay unchanged at exceptionally low levels longer than mid-2013, the BOC would even be harder to alter its policy.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q4 0 25
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Nov -0.80% -0.40% 0.60% 0.70%
2:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Dec 12.80% 12.30% 12.40%
2:00 CNY Real GDP Q/Y Q4 8.90% 8.70% 9.10%
2:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 18.10% 17.30% 17.30%
9:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Nov -0.40%
9:30 GBP CPI M/M Dec 0.40% 0.20%
9:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Dec 4.20% 4.80%
9:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Dec 3.00% 3.20%
9:30 GBP RPI M/M Dec 0.30% 0.20%
9:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Dec 4.70% 5.20%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan -49.2 -53.8
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jan 24 26.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan -48.7 -54.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec 2.80% 3.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Dec 1.60% 1.60%
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Nov 6.97B 2.03B
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Jan 10.5 9.53
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

USD index 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

Despite falling to as low as 72.70 in H1 2011, dollar index found good support there and staged a rebound from there back to the opening level of 2011, suggesting the major downtrend is not ready to resume yet and wave IV correction is still unfolding as a complex correction. We are keeping our preferred count that a major (A)-(B)-(C) wave has commenced since 1980s with (A) wave ended at 78.19 in 1992, followed by a 3-legged wave (B) ended at 121.02 in 2001 and 5-waver wave (C) is unfolding with wave III ended at 70.70 in 2008.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: No update tomorrow, next Candlesticks and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Wednesday - 18 Jan 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

2012 Outlook

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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