Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-17-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Continues after European Bill Auctions

Risk-on is today's theme. The China data triggered risk rally extends after successful bill auctions of Spain, Greece and EFSF. Strong German ZEW investor confidence data also gives sentiments a lift. European major indices maintain gains in early US session while US indices are set to open higher, following better than expected Empire State manufacturing index. European majors recover strongly against dollar yen but is held below near term resistance so far, and thus, there is no indicate of reversal yet. Meanwhile, commodity currencies, in particular Aussie and Kiwi, are strong across the board. Dollar index is back below 81.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2632; (P) 1.2659 (R1) 1.2694; More.

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.2625 extends further today and further rise might be seen. But still, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2878 resistance holds. Below 1.2624 will extend current fall to 100% projection of 1.4939 to 1.3145 from 1.4246 at 1.2452 next. However, above 1.2878 will indicate short term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring stronger rebound back above 1.3076 resistance.

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Special Report
Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q4 0 25
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Nov -0.80% -0.40% 0.60% 0.70%
02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Dec 12.80% 12.30% 12.40%
02:00 CNY Real GDP Q/Y Q4 8.90% 8.70% 9.10%
02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 18.10% 17.30% 17.30%
09:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Nov -3.30% -0.20% -0.40%
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Dec 0.40% 0.40% 0.20%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Dec 4.20% 4.20% 4.80%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Dec 3.00% 3.00% 3.20%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Dec 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Dec 4.80% 4.70% 5.20%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan -21.6 -49.2 -53.8
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jan 28.4 24 26.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan -32.5 -48.7 -54.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec 2.70% 2.80% 3.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Dec 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Nov 14.99B 6.97B 2.03B 3.85B
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Jan 13.5 10.5 9.53
14:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

USD index 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

Despite falling to as low as 72.70 in H1 2011, dollar index found good support there and staged a rebound from there back to the opening level of 2011, suggesting the major downtrend is not ready to resume yet and wave IV correction is still unfolding as a complex correction. We are keeping our preferred count that a major (A)-(B)-(C) wave has commenced since 1980s with (A) wave ended at 78.19 in 1992, followed by a 3-legged wave (B) ended at 121.02 in 2001 and 5-waver wave (C) is unfolding with wave III ended at 70.70 in 2008.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: No update tomorrow, next Candlesticks and Ichimoku Trade Idea update will be made on Wednesday - 18 Jan 2012.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Suggested Readings

2012 Outlook

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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