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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Extends after Italian Auction, Dollar Selloff ContinuesDollar's broad based decline continues today on strong risk appetite. European equities are generally boosted by Fed's low interest rate pledge. Successful Italian auction adds more fuel to risk rally. Italy sold maximum amount of EUR 5b of short-term bonds in the first auction after S&P downgraded the country's rating by two notches. Italy sold EUR 4.5b of January 2014 CTZ bonds and EUR 0.5 b of off-the-run September 2014 bonds. Yield on the two-year zero coupon bonds dropped to 3.76%, lowest since August. 10 year benchmark yield dropped further away from 7% level to 6.09% while five year CDS dropped to 410bps. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2983; (P) 1.3052 (R1) 1.3173; More. EUR/USD rises further to as high as 1.3174 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3244. The persistent strength above 55 days EMA so far argues that fall from 1.4246 is over at 1.2625. Sustained trading above 1.3244 will target next fibo level at 61.8% retracement at 1.3267. On the downside, break of 1.2931 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2625 low instead. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Keeps Interests Low At Least Until Late 2014The Fed delivered a dovish policy statement in January, stating the Fed funds rate will stay at exceptionally low level “at least through late 2014”. There were two other notable changes made at the meeting. First, the Fed released interest rate projections of participants. Second, the central bank released a statement on its longer-run goals and strategy, indicating a 2% long-run target for the PCE deflator. The dovish tone of the statement and the press conference was a reflection of the highly uncertain global economic outlook which was supported by FOMC’s downward revision in growth forecast over the next three years. We retain the view that the Fed will implement QE3 in the second half of this year, after completion of operation twist. RBNZ Intends To Pause LongerAt the January meeting, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and signaled that the pause might be longer than previously anticipated. Despite the seemingly more dovish statement, policymakers saw some improvements in household spending and the housing market. Policymakers believed it’s prudent to keep the OCR on hold at 2.5% but the words “for now” were removed in the statement this time. This probably signals that interest rates will stay at current level longer than previously expected. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone throughout the day and stops above 1.3150 were triggered, however, option-related offers are still noted from 1.3170 up to 1.3200 with more stops placed above 1.3200 and 1.3250 option barriers. On the downside, buying interests from various parties (including Swiss names and Middle East accounts) are lined up from 1.3100 down to 1.3050 with stops placed below latter level but more bids are expected to emerge around 1.3000-10 and 1.2950 with bigger stops building up below 1.2930. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3210Although euro’s intra-day rise to 1.3175 suggests near term upside risk remains for the rise from 1.2624 low to extend gain to previous resistance at 1.3199, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3213 (previous support) and risk from there is seen for a retreat later today or tomorrow. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 100.50As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting the rise from 97.04 low (wave v bottom) is still in progress, adding credence to our bullish view for major correction of recent decline in wave (iv) to 102.50-55 and possibly towards 102.90-00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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