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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Yen Rally Continues as Risk Pulls Back Following US GDP DisappointmentYen continues to strength in early US session in otherwise ranging market as risk rally pulls back following GDP disappointment. Q4 GDP in US showed 2.8% annualized growth, strongest pace in 1.5 years but missed expectation of 3.0%. DOW opened lower today and remains pressured at the time of writing. USD/JPY dips further to as low as 76.76 so far while GBP/JPY is also heading back to 120 level. As noted in prior reports, DOW is facing strong resistance from 2011 high at 12876 and is vulnerable for a pull back after the rally since December. When that happens, USD/JPY could possibly be dragged below key near term support of 76.55. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.22; (P) 77.51; (R1) 77.74; More... USD/JPY drops further to as low as 76.71 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 76.55 support. Break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 79.52 and in that case, deeper fall would be seen towards 75.56 low. On the upside, though, above 77.17 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and extend recent sideway trading in range of 76.55/78.28 instead. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Keeps Interests Low At Least Until Late 2014The Fed delivered a dovish policy statement in January, stating the Fed funds rate will stay at exceptionally low level “at least through late 2014”. There were two other notable changes made at the meeting. First, the Fed released interest rate projections of participants. Second, the central bank released a statement on its longer-run goals and strategy, indicating a 2% long-run target for the PCE deflator. The dovish tone of the statement and the press conference was a reflection of the highly uncertain global economic outlook which was supported by FOMC’s downward revision in growth forecast over the next three years. We retain the view that the Fed will implement QE3 in the second half of this year, after completion of operation twist. RBNZ Intends To Pause LongerAt the January meeting, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% and signaled that the pause might be longer than previously anticipated. Despite the seemingly more dovish statement, policymakers saw some improvements in household spending and the housing market. Policymakers believed it’s prudent to keep the OCR on hold at 2.5% but the words “for now” were removed in the statement this time. This probably signals that interest rates will stay at current level longer than previously expected. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency was hovering around 1.3100 in early European session, however, demand from real money accounts (also in EUR/JPY) emerged below 1.3100 level and lifted the pair back above 1.3150. At the moment, offers are still noted at 1.3180-90 with stops remain above option barrier at 1.3200 and more sizeable stops are placed above next barrier at 1.3250. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3100 (option related NY cut) and more buying interests from Middle East names are tipped from 1.3080 down to 1.3050 with stops seen below 1.3050 but more buy orders are expected at 1.3030 and 1.3000 (another option expiry). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5785Although cable’s rebound after intra-day retreat to 1.5661 suggests near term upside risk remains for recent rise from 1.5234 to bring retest of 1.5735 and possibly towards 1.5760-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6618-1.5234 and 50% projection of 1.5531-1.5735 measuring from 1.5661), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 1.5789 (61.8% projection) would limit upside and bring a retreat later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8415Although the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.8399 yesterday, as long as 0.8311 support holds, near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 0.8222 to bring retracement of recent decline towards previous resistance at 0.8422, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there, bring another decline later. Below said support at 0.8311 would suggest top is possibly formed and weakness to next support at 0.8278 would follow Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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