Friday, January 13, 2012

Action Insight Daily Report 1-13-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Maintains Gain Against Dollar, But EUR/CHF Spirals Lower

Euro is maintaining yesterday's bond auction triggered gain against dollar so far today. But, the strength of rebound is so far limited. Greece is entering the final stage in the discussion with private sector creditors on debt write-down as Prime Minister Papademos said that there will be the "public formal offer" by beginning of February. However, it's remain doubtful if the deal could be finalized that quickly given it's also reported that key areas remain unresolved. And there were talks that if a deal could not be reached 100%, Greek could use the collective-action clause to force a minority of holdout creditors to take losses, or lower the interest rate on bailout loans for Greece to buy back its bonds held by ECB at discounted prices.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.42; (P) 117.42; (R1) 117.42; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall is expected to extend to 116.83 key support next. On the upside, break of 119.10 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.

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Special Report

Both ECB and BOE Stayed on the Sideline

At two consecutive months of rate reduction, the ECB decided to leave the main refinancing rate at 1% at the January meeting. Policymakers would like gauge the impacts of previous rate cuts and liquidity provisions on the economy. Meanwhile, President Draghi indicated the 3-year LTRO has benefited banks and supported confidence. This is by no means an end of the easing cycle. Indeed, the ECB will like lower interest rates further should economic conditions deteriorate.

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2012 Forecast: Sterling Has Potential to Weaken Against Euro

Similar to the euro, the British pound will likely weaken against the US dollar amid risk aversion in the first half of the year. Against the euro, the pound had gained for 3 consecutive years since 2009 although the magnitude has been declining. In 2011, EURGBP has been on a down trend since the EU summit as pessimism that EU finance leaders would not be able to derive effective measures to resolve the sovereign debt crisis has made sterling a safe-haven asset in the short-term. We do not expect this to continue this year as the UK has its own fiscal and economic problems to struggle. The disaster these might cause is not less than the debt problems in the17-nation region. An option to alleviate the economic problems would be monetary easing. Without the need of majority vote, the BOE may deliver more dovish stance on the monetary outlook than the ECB in 2012. This would then weaken the British pound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Dec 3.10% 3.00% 3.00%
9:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Dec -0.10% 0.10%
9:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Dec 9.10% 13.40%
9:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Dec 0.10% 0.20%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y dec 5.00% 5.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Nov 0.7B 0.3B
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Nov -0.35B -0.89B
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec -0.10% 0.70%
13:30 USD Trade Balance Nov -44.6B -43.5B
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jan P 70.5 69.9
2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

USD index 2012 Elliott Wave Forecast

Despite falling to as low as 72.70 in H1 2011, dollar index found good support there and staged a rebound from there back to the opening level of 2011, suggesting the major downtrend is not ready to resume yet and wave IV correction is still unfolding as a complex correction. We are keeping our preferred count that a major (A)-(B)-(C) wave has commenced since 1980s with (A) wave ended at 78.19 in 1992, followed by a 3-legged wave (B) ended at 121.02 in 2001 and 5-waver wave (C) is unfolding with wave III ended at 70.70 in 2008.

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Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency continued to move higher after yesterday's rally in part due to strong results of Spanish and Italian bond auctions and stops above 1.2820 were triggered and sizeable offers and stops in the region of 1.2850-70 were also cleared, more offers are tipped at 1.2900-10 with next stops seen above 1.2950-60 and further out at 1.3000. On the downside, bids are lined up at 1.2810-20 with some stops building up below 1.2780-90 with more buying interest likely to emerge around 1.2740-50 and sizeable stops are placed below 1.2700.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5475

Although current euro-led rebound signals a temporary low has been formed at 1.5279 yesterday and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5404), upside should be limited to resistance at 1.5490-00, bring another decline later. A break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5336) would suggest top is possibly formed but break of 1.5310-15 is needed to signal the rebound from 1.5279 has ended

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2940

Although the single currency has risen again this morning in Asia and near term upside risk remains for the rise from this week’s low of 1.2662 to extend gain to previous support at 1.2898, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 1.2915-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3077-1.2662) and reckon 1.2940-50 would attract renewed selling interest, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

2012 Outlook

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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