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Mid-Day Report: Euro Treads Water Ahead of EU SummitEuro continues to tread water as markets are awaiting the EU summit later this week. German Chancellor Merkel will meet with French President Hollande today in preparation of the two-day EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Merkel was blunt in her rejection of Eurobonds and said yesterday that she doesn't see "total debt liability" as long as she lives. And, her spokesman Seibert reiterated today that "even within Germany after 60 years there isn't joint liability", and Merkel doesn't see it in Europe either. Yesterday, US rating agency cut Germany's rating to A+ from AA-. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9579; (P) 0.9615; (R1) 0.9647; More.... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 0.9650 minor resistance intact, the correction from 0.9771 could extend lower. Below 0.9542 will flip bias to the downside for 61.8% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9771 at 0.9320. Though, break of 0.9650 will indicate that such correction is finished and should flip bias back to the upside for 0.9771 and above. |
| Special Reports |
Japan Passes Consumption Tax Hike, More Political Than Economic Meaning In The Near-TermThe lower house of the Japanese parliament passed the bill to double the consumption tax in three years by a vote of 363-96. The bill will then be voted by the upper house to become law and it's very likely to be approved. The consumption tax hike was a means to ease the fiscal deficit of the Japanese economy. However, the impact is expected to be small. While the government anticipates it would help soothe the fiscal problems, opposition parties believed this would weaken demand for domestic goods, further hurting the nation's economy. Some analysts viewed that the hike would weaken that outlook of Japanese yen. On the political front, opponents of the tax hike may submit a no-confidence motion regarding the bill. The worst scenario would be resignation of the Noda Cabinet or dissolution of the lower house and elections. EURUSD to Break Below 1.20 by Year EndWe are bearish on the euro's outlook in the second half of the year. Likely delay of the ESM due to Germany's Federal Constitutional Court's examination of the mechanism, expectation of rate cut as it tends to focus more on growth and capital outflow from the Eurozone to small economies such as Switzerland are the key reasons behind our anticipation for further weakness in the single currency. The recovery of EUR/USD since the beginning of June has probably ended and the decline might have resumed. We forecast the currency pair to fall to as low as 1.19 by the year end. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.2442 yesterday, renewed selling interest emerged again at below indicated offers at 1.2510 and has retreated again in U.S. opening partly due to the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. durable goods order, however, bids are still noted above 1.2440 stops and more buying interests from Asian and Middle East names remain at 1.2400-10 with bigger stops placed below there. On the upside, said offers are still standing at 1.2510-20 with stops building up above 1.2530-35 but fresh sell orders are expected around 1.2580-90. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5600Current retreat in New York opening in part due to the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. durable goods order suggests caution on our long position entered at 1.5600 and indicated support at 1.5564 (yesterday’s low) needs to hold to retain bullishness for another rebound, above 1.5650-51 resistance would add credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.5539, bring a strong retracement of the decline from 1.5778 to 1.5687 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 99.15Although the single currency extend the fall from 101.63 to 98.74, as price has found support there and has rebound yesterday, retaining our near term bullishness for test of 99.88 (yesterday’s high), a daily close above there would suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 100.35-40, break there would add credence to this view, then further gain to 101.00 would follow. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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