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Mid-Day Report: Spanish Yield Breached 7%, Italian Yield Jumped in Auction, But FX Markets SteadyThe FX markets remained relatively steady today as major pairs were stuck in tight range even though news flow from Europe continued to be negative. Just after being downgraded by two rating agencies, Spanish benchmark 10 year yield finally breached the unsustainable 7% level today and hit a new euro-era record. Italian bond auctions was solid but saw yield jumped sharply to highest level this year. Investors were showing much lack of confidence in the Eurozone but traders are reluctant to bet on either direction ahead of the critical Greece elections this Sunday. SNB and RBNZ left rates unchanged as widely expected. Data from US saw initial claims rose back to 386k in the week ended June 9. CPI slowed more than expected to 1.7% yoy in May while core CPI was unchanged at 2.3%. Eurozone CPI was finalized at 2.4% yoy in May with core CPI unchanged at 1.6%. Other data saw Canada new housing price index rose 0.2% mom in April, Japan industrial production dropped -0.2% mom in April. But these data provided little inspiration to markets. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 79.26; (P) 79.50; (R1) 79.71; More... USD/JPY dips mildly in early US session but stays in tight range below 79.79. Intraday bias remains neutral with focus on 78.92 minor support. Break there will indicate that recovery from 77.66 is already finished and bias will be flipped back to the downside for 77.66 and then 75.56/76.02 support zone. As noted before decline from 84.17 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet. We'll be cautious on bottoming signal as it enters into 75.56/76.02 support zone, at least on first attempt. However, note that break of 80.29 will indicate that the near term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bullish instead. |
| Special Reports |
SNB Left Monetary Policy Unchanged, Reaffirmed To Defend EURCHF FloorThe SNB announced to leave the target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at 0.00-0.25%. The central bank also reiterated to 'maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro and will enforce it with the utmost determination'. Policymakers viewed that Switzerland’s economy remain 'exceptionally high' and warned that current level of Swiss franc remained too high. The SNB pledged to take any measures to defend the EUR/CHF floor. RBNZ Left OCR unchanged but Lowered Growth OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in June although it noted that New Zealand's economy has weakened a little since the March MPS. The central bank has postponed its first rate hike from late this year to next but the overall interest rate track is just slightly lower. GDP growth forecasts were lower this year and as an average over the coming 3 years. Concerning future monetary policy outlook, we believe the RBNZ would keep the door open for further easing if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates further. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has remained range-bound as eurozone economic data came in as expected and offers remains at 1.2590-00 with stops building up above 1.2610-15, however, fresh selling interests are expected to emerge around 1.2650-60 with more stops placed above 1.2675-80 and 1.2700. On the downside, bids from Asian and Middle East names are tipped at 1.2540-50 and also at 1.2520-25 with stops building up below 1.2500 but decent demand remain at 1.2440-50, followed by sizeable stops planted below 1.2430 and 1.2400. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9500Dollar’s retreat after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.9657 (last Friday’s high) has retained our view that further consolidation would be seen and weakness to 0.9515 is likely, however, still reckon downside would be limited to 0.9500 and support at 0.9486 should remain intact, bring another rise later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Target met and stand asideThe Australian dollar rose in line with our expectations and our long position entered at 0.9850 met indicated target at 1.0000 as price surged to as high as 1.0004 yesterday (our long at 0.9850 met target at 1.0000 with 150 points profit), however, as price has retreated after faltering below this week’s high of 1.0010, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and another corrective fall towards 0.9850 cannot be ruled out. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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