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Mid-Day Report: Yen Sold off in Otherwise Consolidative MarketsThe FX markets continues to consolidate in general as the Greece situation is temporarily settled and Spain somewhat passed this week's debt auctions. The only notable move was found in the Japanese yen which was soft off sharply and broadly, in reaction to Fed's Operation Twist announcement yesterday. Data from US saw initial jobless claims remains elevated at 387k in the week ended June 16 while the four-week moving average jumped to 386k, highest this year. Continuing claims was little changed at around 3.3m in the week ended June 9. Data from Canada was also poor with headline retail sales dropped -0.5% in April while ex-auto sales dropped -0.3%, and both missed expectations. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.98; (P) 79.34; (R1) 79.89; More... USD/JPY jumped sharply to as high as 80.08 so far today as the rebound from 78.60 resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rally should be seen through 80.29 support turned resistance to 100% projection of 77.66 to 79.79 from 78.60 at 80.73 at least. Also, note that the break of 80.29 will then indicate completion of fall from 84.17 at 77.66.On the downside, break of 78.60 support is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will now stay cautiously bullish even in case of retreat. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Extends Operation Twist By $267B, Downgrades Economic ForecastsAs we had anticipated, the Fed decided to extend operation twist through the year-end, instead of implementation of QE3, in June. With the amount of $267B, the pace of asset purchases and sales would remain unchanged. To our surprise but indeed a positive sign, the Fed maintain the reference of keeping interest rates at exceptionally low level at least through late 2014, rather than delaying the timing of the first rate hike. Economic forecasts were markedly downgraded. The Fed retained the possibility of further easing but this would depend on the job market situation. There were 2 additional members at the meeting, Governors Jeremy Stein and Jerome Powell, present at the meeting. BOE More Inclined To Increase Size Of Asset PurchasesThe June minutes for the BOE meeting unveiled that the members were more split on whether to increase asset purchases to stimulate economic growth. With 5 votes favoring no change while 4 votes supporting additional easing, it has become increasingly likely that the central bank would announce a raise in asset purchases at the next meeting. Inflation has moderated more than anticipated and should have created a more comfortable environment for easing policies. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Dollar's intra-day rise gathered momentum in European session after triggering stops above 79.85-90 and sizeable offers at 80.00 were also filled, more buy stop orders at 80.15-25 were just tripped, U.S names (mostly funds) were seen buying the pair actively. At the moment, selling interests from exporters are still noted at 80.40-50 with more stops placed above 80.60 whilst bids from same parties remain at 80.00, 79.80 and also at 79.55-60 with stops now building up below 79.35-40. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9550Despite yesterday’s brief fall to 0.9425, as the greenback has rebounded after holding above this week’s low of 0.9424, suggesting further consolidation above this level would be seen and break of intra-day resistance at 0.9500 would bring recovery to 0.9545-50 but still reckon resistance at 0.9565 would cap upside, bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9424 is needed to confirm recent decline from 0.9771 top has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9407 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 99.95As the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interests at 99.82 yesterday and the breach of indicated resistance at 100.90 (last week’s high) confirms the rise from 95.59 low (bottom of wave v and iii) has resumed for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 101.60-70 but upside should be limited to 102.12 (previous 4th of a lesser degree), price should falter below 102.50-60, bring retreat later this month. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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