Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-13-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers But StayS in Familiar Range, RBNZ Next

Euro recover mildly today but is kept in familiar range. At this point, traders seem to be reluctant to bet on either direction ahead of Greece election on Sunday. Recent polls continued to show mixed prediction. One of them showed New Democracy continuing to lead Syriza while the other showed Syriza leads. An important news is that Syria leader Alexis Tsipras wrote in Financial Times and pledged to keep Greece in Euro. But, he would seek to work on an easier bailout deal with EU and IMF. Meanwhile, it's reported that EU leaders might consider relaxing the austerity program after the election. After all, as Fitch said, there is "enormous uncertainty" in the Greece situation. And Fitch warned that Greece exit would have significant contagion risks to the region. And, ahead of the important elections, Greek deposit outflows have been accelerating. It's reported that daily withdrawals in Greece has jumped to EUR 100m to 500m range in June, and could have possibly exceeded EUR 700m this week.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9576; (P) 0.9613; (R1) 0.9642; More....

USD/CHF weakens mildly today but stays in range of 0.9477/9657 and intraday bias remains neutral. Focus remains on 0.9657 minor resistance. Break there will indicate that correction from 0.9771 is finished and should send USD/CHF through 0.9771 to next key resistance level at 0.9916. Nonetheless, below 0.9477 and 38.2% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9771 at 0.9492 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9320 before the correction from 0.9771 finishes.

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Special Reports

RBNZ To Leave OCR At 2.5%

The RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% at its June meeting. Despite the heightened uncertainty in the Eurozone and the loss of momentum in global economic recovery in recent weeks, policymakers have been hesitant to lower interest rates further due to concerns over renewed credit boom. The central bank would prefer to gauge the global and domestic situation with more information before adding further stimulus. Tactically, delaying a rate cut to a worse period would be more effective in bolstering growth and sentiment. That being said, the accompanying statement would deliver a message that the central bank would consider policy easing should the situation deteriorate further.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Apr 5.70% 1.60% -2.80%
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun 0.30% 0.80%
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M May F -0.20% -0.20% -0.20%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y May F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI M/M May -0.20% -0.10% -0.10%
07:15 CHF Combined PPI Y/Y May -2.30% -2.00% -2.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Apr -0.80% -1.20% -0.30% -0.10%
12:30 USD PPI M/M May -1.00% -0.60% -0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May 0.70% 1.30% 1.90%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales May -0.20% -0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos May -0.40% 0.00% 0.10%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr 0.30% 0.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.1M
21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
 

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in European session on back of fresh gain in Spanish yields, however, offers above 1.2550-60 capped euro's upside so far and price has retreated in New York opening. At the moment, option related offers are still noted at 1.2550-60 and further out at 1.2590-00 with more selling interests likely to emerge around 1.2620-30. On the downside, bids from Middle East and Asian names are reported at 1.2500, 1.2470-75 and also at 1.2440-50 with stops building up below 1.2430 and also in good size at 1.2400. A large 1.2500 option is going to expire later today.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9520

Despite yesterday’s rise to 0.9650, as dollar has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.9657 (last Friday’s high), retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.9550 is likely, however, previous support at 0.9515 should attract renewed buying interests, bring another rise later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 0.9850

The Australian dollar found renewed buying interests at 0.9850 yesterday and has rebounded in line with our expectations, retaining our bullishness for another test of this week’s high of 1.0010, however, break above there is needed to extend the rise from 0.9581 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.0053 and then 1.0080

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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