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Daily Report: Risk Markets Rally on Fed Expectation, Dollar SoftAsian markets are broadly higher today, following 95.5 pts gain in DOW overnight as investors are betting on stimulus actions from Fed today and China in near term. Focus this week was shifted from Greece which avoided chance of Euro exit, to Spain which somewhat passed yesterday's bill auction, and now to Fed which will announce rate decision later today. Most major currencies are higher against the greenback, with notable strength seen in Aussie, Canadian and Sterling. Euro, on the other hand, lagged behind as it's still limited below this week's high of 1.2747 against dollar, being pressured by continues worries on soaring peripheral debt yields. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0067; (P) 1.0128; (R1) 1.0164; More AUD/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.0200 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0225 support turned resistance. Decisive there will confirm that whole fall from 1.0852 has completed at 0.9588 already. In such case, stronger rally could be seen through 1.0473 resistance to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0742). On the downside, below 1.0056 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained above 0.9820 support and bring another rise. |
| Special Reports |
Extension of Operation Twist Likely at June FOMC MeetingIt would be a difficult bet on whether the Fed would announce additional easing at the meeting Wednesday. We received two disappointing employment reports since the last FOMC meeting and the global economic outlook have also deteriorated markedly. Several Fed presidents doubted the effectiveness of further easing from the Fed. In our opinion, the Fed, if it decides to add more stimuli to the market, would more likely extend the operational twist than adopt outright purchase of assets. It is also possible for policymakers to delay the timing for the hiking the Fed funds rate. Concerning economic forecasts, we would not be surprised to see the central projections modestly lowered. RBA Cut Cash Rate Amid Concerns On Global Economic OutlookThe RBA released minutes for the June meeting explaining the decision of reducing the policy rate by -25 bps to 3.5%. The minutes suggested that the decision was made after 'finely balanced' arguments among members. Policymakers remained optimistic on the domestic economic outlook and it was mainly the global economic slowdown, particularly the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, that triggered the rate cut. The central bank viewed the current monetary stance as stimulatory and thus another rate cut in July appears less likely. Yet, if the global economic environment continues to deteriorate, the RBA would still lower interest rates further later in the year. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday's rally to 1.2730, the single currency retreated overnight but renewed buying interests from Middle East names (who bought the pair aggressively yesterday) emerged around 1.2662-65, more bids are tipped at 1.2650 as well as 1.2630 with some stops seen below 1.2600 but sizeable stops only appeared below 1.2540-50. On the upside, fair size offers (for profit-taking purposes) are noted at 1.2700 and from 1.2730 up to 1.2750. Expect broad range of 1.2550-1.2748 ahead of FOMC later today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5650Although yesterday’s breach of resistance at 1.5742 signals the rise from 1.5269 low has once again resumed, as price has retreated from 1.5757, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5686) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.5650 and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2600Despite yesterday’s rally to 1.2730, as the single currency has retreated in late New York after faltering below this week’s high of 1.2748, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2650) would bring test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.2618) but renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.2600 and bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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