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Daily Report: Sentiments Improved Mildly ahead of Greece ElectionA couple of developments lifted market sentiments overnight, which carried on in Asia today. But investors remained generally cautious ahead of Greece elections this Sunday. Eurozone debt crisis will definitely be the main topic in the G20 summit in Mexico next Monday and Tuesday. And Reuters reported that G-20 leaders are already " preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity" if global financial markets worsen markedly after the Greek election." Meanwhile, It's also that Chancellor Merkel's office has changed stance in the "European Redemption Pact" and is now open to consider proposals for the EUR 2.3T stabilization fund after having totally rejected it in November last year. Also, EU offices seemed to have agreed to give room to soften the austerity measures imposed on the debt-ridden Greece. However, despite this, it is still uncertain whether the far-left party, the Syriza party, would accept the conditions if it win the election. Syriza's leader Alexis Tsipras stated that it would abandon the austerity program, a move that would force Greece to go bankrupt and the country to leave the bloc. There are still much uncertainty lying ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 79.26; (P) 79.50; (R1) 79.71; More... The break of 78.92 minor support suggests that recovery from 77.66 is already finished at 79.79. Intraday bias is back on the downside for a test on 77.66. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 84.17 and should target 75.56/76.02 support zone. As noted before decline from 84.17 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet. We'll be cautious on bottoming signal as it enters into 75.56/76.02 support zone, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, above 79.79 will dampen this bearish case and indicate that rebound from 77.66 is resuming for 80.29 and above. |
| Special Reports |
SNB Left Monetary Policy Unchanged, Reaffirmed To Defend EURCHF FloorThe SNB announced to leave the target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at 0.00-0.25%. The central bank also reiterated to 'maintain the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro and will enforce it with the utmost determination'. Policymakers viewed that Switzerland’s economy remain 'exceptionally high' and warned that current level of Swiss franc remained too high. The SNB pledged to take any measures to defend the EUR/CHF floor. RBNZ Left OCR unchanged but Lowered Growth OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in June although it noted that New Zealand's economy has weakened a little since the March MPS. The central bank has postponed its first rate hike from late this year to next but the overall interest rate track is just slightly lower. GDP growth forecasts were lower this year and as an average over the coming 3 years. Concerning future monetary policy outlook, we believe the RBNZ would keep the door open for further easing if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates further. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency extended this week's rise to 1.2647, offers from hedge funds in good size are reported at 1.2650 as well as 1.2670-80 (in good size), Moody's cut debt and deposit ratings of 5 Dutch banks may put some pressure on euro, stops are tipped above 1.2680 and 1.2700-10. On the downside, bids from Middle East names (who bought the pair throughout the week) are noted at 1.2600-10 with some stops placed below 1.2585, followed by mixture of bids and stops located further out at 1.2540-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.2645Although the single currency extended this week’s rise from 1.2443 to as high as 1.2647 this morning in Asia, as price has retreated from there, retaining our broad consolidative view and mild downside bias remains for test of Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2594), then the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.2559), however, break of the lower Kumo (now at 1.2526) is needed to confirm top is formed Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.20As the greenback has dropped after meeting renewed selling interests at 79.51, suggesting the rise from 77.65 has formed a top at 79.80 and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 78.50, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, still reckon downside would be limited to 77.90-00, bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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